After a week of extreme market volatility, Golden Week starts next week, heading into Chinese New Year on Friday, and the omens don’t look good.
Macro Thoughts believes it is the risk of a run on US Assets, rather than fear of inflation, that will, and possibly has already started to, impact on market volatility.
After a week of historic market volatility, it may be easy to overlook other events and the potential significance of China’s trade balance being halved, amid ballooning imports. While it is easy to blame market volatility for oil prices falling below $60 but this may be more of a macroeconomic reaction. If so, the implications will be far reaching, economically and politically, in all regions.
Chinese Producer Prices have fallen for the past three months and its official CPI data is just 1.5%, lower than several developed economies, including the US and UK, and matching that of Europe, increasing import demand for commodities, raising global GDP towards 4%.
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