Macro Thoughts Ltd

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Since 2012, top tier global Hedge, Pension, Investment and Insurance Fund managers, as well as corporates and private individuals, have benefited from Macro Thoughts’ proven insight, market commentary, hedging, and investment strategies to leverage opportunities, with positive returns on over 75% of strategies, producing double digit returns for our clients over consecutive years.

Macro Thoughts is independently researched and draws on extensive macroeconomic and market experience gained in Fixed Income, Futures, Derivatives, Bond, Forex, Commodity and Equity Index markets and from strong Global Macro investment, risk taking and strategy backgrounds. Far-reaching product knowledge across asset classes enables us to consider hedging and investment strategies that reflect our expected market trends. Macro Thoughts is directed by Keith Grindlay, whose experience spans, somewhat uniquely, both the buy and sell side, having managed trading and investment desks at top tier institutions, ensuring all strategies are evaluated for risk/reward and the optimal instrument(s) for best leveraging the strategy suggested are employed.

Globally recognised for strong analytical skills, aligned with a particular aptitude for anticipating global economic events ahead of the majority of commentators, Macro Thoughts’ independent fundamental economic research and analysis and resultant strategies have a track record that assures exceptional results, with a service that surpasses the model of bank-supplied, partisan research and stands out from the general contributions on platforms that your clients and peers already have access to. The support and value offered by Macro Thoughts, delivering written research and analysis, presentations and consulting services, is backed by decades of macroeconomic and market experience and can be tailored to your specific requirements.

Member of the Royal Economic Society & EuroIRP, the European Association of Independent Research Providers.

www.macrothoughts.co.uk

Regulatory Information

  • Regulatory Status: Independent Ltd company. Regulation not applicable.

Keith Grindlay
  • Keith Grindlay

Central bank tapering - an incentive for ESG? Environmental – Social -...

Adopting an ESG culture will attract a more diverse investor, can cheapen debt issuance and benefit shareholders, Equities, Bonds, Currencies Environment: Climate change  Carbon emissions Pollution Biodiversity Deforestation Energy efficiency Waste management Water scarcity Flooding   Social: Customer satisfaction Financing Data protection and privacy Gender and ethnic diversity Employee engagement Community relations Human rights Rule of Law Labour standards   Gov...

10/25/21 October 25, 2021 6 EN
Keith Grindlay
  • Keith Grindlay
EUR 250.00

Is it too late to address inflation? (US economic data roundup)

Central banks should be concerned how quickly the Chinese recovery is faltering, with producers bearing the brunt of higher prices.... In November 2020, Chinese 10 year yields were trading at 3.4%, but dropped to 3.15% before the end of the year, while US yields continued to rise. Following a correction to 3.3% in the first quarter, yields have since dropped to 2.85%. Since April, we have continued to favour Investment Grade Bonds over High Yields (see our April 3 report) and in June we said: ‘...

09/03/21 September 3, 2021 7 EN
Keith Grindlay
  • Keith Grindlay
EUR 250.00

Commodity prices have fallen since our May 18 report, and we expect an...

Niggling doubts...Will $3.5tn make any difference, or create another problem for the next generation? The passing of a $3.5tn US spending bill and $1tn being spent on infrastructure projects has global implications, directly and indirectly. It has global inflationary implications, and potentially raises questions for Fed policies, as such large government spending will add to inflationary pressures; what impact will it have on long end yields? Commodity prices have fallen since our May 18 repo...

08/12/21 August 12, 2021 11 EN
Keith Grindlay
  • Keith Grindlay
EUR 349.71

Back to the Future - In this report we consider the first half of 2021...

May and June might be the inflection point we have been warning of, where inflation starts to slow growth and the rebound. It is looking like H2 will become more interesting; bonds have broken out of their slumber, China has started to make the Nasdaq nervous, the Dollar is stronger, commodity markets have corrected, and GDP expectations are being lowered, whilst the improvement in US unemployment seems to be slowing. In this report we consider the first half of 2021, and our expectations for...

07/07/21 July 7, 2021 12 EN
Keith Grindlay
  • Keith Grindlay
EUR 291.43

Commodity Super Cycle? Ask Latin America!

In August, we forecast a marked rise in global inflation, but warned that the risks would be in Producer Inflation, more than in Consumer Inflation; those risks have now increased. Markets will wait for evidence of a manufacturing slowdown in the PMIs of developed economies, which have continued to rise, but in Emerging Markets, PMIs in 2021 haven’t recovered to their peak of 2020; indeed, the trend has definitely turned lower, and it wouldn’t take much for them to become negative.  In mid-May,...

06/30/21 June 30, 2021 7 EN
Keith Grindlay
  • Keith Grindlay
EUR 116.57

Macro Thoughts’ review of 2018 and expectations for 2019 - To Xi or ...

For the fifth consecutive year, Macro Thoughts has produced double-digit returns for its clients in 2018. 6 months ago…(June 2018) Macro Thoughts released its half year review, including trade strategies, with YTD returns in double digit to portfolio…   Buy GBPUSD 1.32, Sell 1.42 Buy GBPAUD 1.72, Sell 1.82 Sell EURUSD 1.24, Buy 1.17, 1.15 & 1.12 Buy USDCHN 1.42, Sell 1.60 Tactically trading EM currencies Various Volatility strategies in TY$ & Bund Future options, (as well as VIX Volati...

01/01/19 January 1, 2019 25 EN
Keith Grindlay
  • Keith Grindlay
EUR 116.57

Paying the price

In this report, Macro Thoughts considers the economic data and central bank policies of the US, China, Canada, Europe, India, Australia and Japan, but points out that it has been the RBNZ that has been the most innovative of central banks - and that it's bucking the trend. Several of Macro Thoughts’ forecasts and fears are now being recognised: India suffering from WPI prices spiking Chinese GDP of 6.4% by year end Asian economies continuing to slow, following deceleration in the final qua...

10/31/18 October 31, 2018 10 EN
Keith Grindlay
  • Keith Grindlay
EUR 116.57

Change means volatility and markets need to become more aware that bei...

Macro Thoughts, August 30, 2018: ‘Returning from a summer break, it is easy to disregard any volatility as a reaction to reduced liquidity, yet very often August can also be a warning of potential risks to come and, within just a few months, August’s angst can become October’s trend’. Severe moves in market volatility and yields may be considered as corrections within a trend, but trends in equity, oil, currency and commodity markets have largely been based on sentiment and expectations; theref...

10/14/18 October 14, 2018 7 EN
Keith Grindlay
  • Keith Grindlay
EUR 116.57

With interest rates rising, it is anticipated US household debt will r...

Does the end justify the means? Americans owe more than 26% of their annual income, but home ownership has fallen to levels last seen in the 1960s, and with rising interest rates, indications are that house prices are likely to start falling. While market focus has been on countries such as India, Indonesia, Greece, and Argentina, if the Dollar strength and oil price rises continue, along with interest rates rising globally, Japan, Europe, Canada, and even Australia, could be at risk. Since A...

10/05/18 October 5, 2018 7 EN
Keith Grindlay
  • Keith Grindlay
EUR 100.00

IMF upgrading growth confirms Macro Thoughts’ fears for EM

Macro Thoughts  May 10, 2018  - IMF upgrading growth confirms Macro Thoughts’ fears for EM  Only this week, in its latest release of economic forecasts, the IMF upgraded its forecasts for Asia from last October, with growth of 5.6% now expected, which might suggest Macro Thoughts has been wrong in its assumption that Asian growth has been slowing.   Actually, if anything, the details within the report are a confirmation of Macro Thoughts’ assessment that economies are slowing, and the risks of ...

10/02/18 October 2, 2018 9 EN
Keith Grindlay
  • Keith Grindlay
EUR 250.00

Commodity prices have fallen since our May 18 report, and we expect an...

Niggling doubts...Will $3.5tn make any difference, or create another problem for the next generation? The passing of a $3.5tn US spending bill and $1tn being spent on infrastructure projects has global implications, directly and indirectly. It has global inflationary implications, and potentially raises questions for Fed policies, as such large government spending will add to inflationary pressures; what impact will it have on long end yields? Commodity prices have fallen since our May 18 repo...

08/12/21 August 12, 2021 11 EN
Keith Grindlay
  • Keith Grindlay
EUR 349.71

Back to the Future - In this report we consider the first half of 2021...

May and June might be the inflection point we have been warning of, where inflation starts to slow growth and the rebound. It is looking like H2 will become more interesting; bonds have broken out of their slumber, China has started to make the Nasdaq nervous, the Dollar is stronger, commodity markets have corrected, and GDP expectations are being lowered, whilst the improvement in US unemployment seems to be slowing. In this report we consider the first half of 2021, and our expectations for...

07/07/21 July 7, 2021 12 EN
Keith Grindlay
  • Keith Grindlay
EUR 291.43

Commodity Super Cycle? Ask Latin America!

In August, we forecast a marked rise in global inflation, but warned that the risks would be in Producer Inflation, more than in Consumer Inflation; those risks have now increased. Markets will wait for evidence of a manufacturing slowdown in the PMIs of developed economies, which have continued to rise, but in Emerging Markets, PMIs in 2021 haven’t recovered to their peak of 2020; indeed, the trend has definitely turned lower, and it wouldn’t take much for them to become negative.  In mid-May,...

06/30/21 June 30, 2021 7 EN
Keith Grindlay
  • Keith Grindlay
EUR 174.86

Market Friendly Fed

So, the ridiculous dots were moved…The Dollar would have some recovery, even without the Fed meeting.   GBPUSD at 1.42, USDCNH at 1.38, USDJPY at 110.75 and EURUSD at 1.22 were all at key resistance areas…   So, the ridiculous dots were moved, as at this week’s FOMC meeting they signalled rates will be going up in 2023, twice. Even more ridiculous, the Fed has suddenly become hawkish. High inflation and inflation expectations meant the Fed had to react, but it has done the minimum it might h...

06/17/21 June 17, 2021 7 EN
Keith Grindlay
  • Keith Grindlay

The week ahead June 13 - 18, 2021

Key market data and events Macro Thoughts will be focused on...Comments include... In our May 18 report, ‘Extremes’, we said ‘China’s rebound is slowing’. We also warned, ‘Commodity markets are filled with consensus trades, and look ready for a sharp correction’. Global bond yields started to trend lower from May 19, US yields have fallen to their lowest in three months, while long term moving averages for Chinese 10 year yields have started to cross. See Macro Thoughts, June 11, ‘Cost of Liv...

06/14/21 June 14, 2021 3 EN
Keith Grindlay
  • Keith Grindlay
EUR 250.00

Is it too late to address inflation? (US economic data roundup)

Central banks should be concerned how quickly the Chinese recovery is faltering, with producers bearing the brunt of higher prices.... In November 2020, Chinese 10 year yields were trading at 3.4%, but dropped to 3.15% before the end of the year, while US yields continued to rise. Following a correction to 3.3% in the first quarter, yields have since dropped to 2.85%. Since April, we have continued to favour Investment Grade Bonds over High Yields (see our April 3 report) and in June we said: ‘...

09/03/21 September 3, 2021 7 EN
Keith Grindlay
  • Keith Grindlay

Central bank tapering - an incentive for ESG? Environmental – Social -...

Adopting an ESG culture will attract a more diverse investor, can cheapen debt issuance and benefit shareholders, Equities, Bonds, Currencies Environment: Climate change  Carbon emissions Pollution Biodiversity Deforestation Energy efficiency Waste management Water scarcity Flooding   Social: Customer satisfaction Financing Data protection and privacy Gender and ethnic diversity Employee engagement Community relations Human rights Rule of Law Labour standards   Gov...

10/25/21 October 25, 2021 6 EN

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