Macro Thoughts has consistently focused on demand as the driver of growth and consequently has not felt the same enthusiasm as the majority of economists when PMIs start to hit new records. Therefore, as Black Friday and Cyber Monday (week) come to an end, with records being broken, shouldn’t this bring some satisfaction? Amazon accounted for 55% of Black Friday on line transactions over the weekend; second to Amazon was Walmart (with 1.14million transactions...).
Growth in consumer spending accounts for around 66% of US GDP and therefore billion Dollar sales should be a sign the consumer is awakening from their post-crisis slumber, and that US growth is improving; however, within even the upgraded Q3 GDP data there were traces of stress to come.
CHART: ATLANTA FED WAGE GROWTH BY AGE 12 MONTH MEDIAN MOVING AVERAGE
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