Around the US economy in 14 charts.
This week’s US economic data is likely to set the pace of US rate increases in 2018. If Average Hourly Earnings continue to show the strength of last month, then the Fed may increase rates at a faster pace. But if, as Macro Thoughts expects, they return to trend, then fewer rate increases may need to be considered.
The Fed may feel they are using a light touch and that their rate increases are having a limited impact, but their policy actions are not acting on the economy in isolation….
Macro Thoughts, January 11, 2018, ‘With a more hawkish look to the Fed in 2018, rate hikes look set to continue, and yields may be expected to continue to rise, though Macro Thoughts doesn’t see the start of a Bear market until Core CPI (ex Food and Energy), is above 2.5%, wage growth is above 3% and yields are above 2.95%’.
Macro Thoughts, January 12, 2018, ‘Macro Thoughts has raised its US Q4 GDP expectation to around 2.5%, still lower than consensus, but Wholesale Inventories remain high and this should be reflected in H1 2018 growth’.
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Macro Thoughts is independently researched and draws on extensive macroeconomic and market experience gained in Fixed Income, Futures, Derivatives, Bond, Forex, Commodity and Equity Index markets and from strong Global Macro investment, risk taking and strategy backgrounds. Far-reaching product knowledge across asset classes enables us to consider hedging and investment strategies that reflect our expected market trends. Macro Thoughts is directed by Keith Grindlay, whose experience spans, somewhat uniquely, both the buy and sell side, having managed trading and investment desks at top tier institutions, ensuring all strategies are evaluated for risk/reward and the optimal instrument(s) for best leveraging the strategy suggested are employed.
Globally recognised for strong analytical skills, aligned with a particular aptitude for anticipating global economic events ahead of the majority of commentators, Macro Thoughts’ independent fundamental economic research and analysis and resultant strategies have a track record that assures exceptional results, with a service that surpasses the model of bank-supplied, partisan research and stands out from the general contributions on platforms that your clients and peers already have access to. The support and value offered by Macro Thoughts, delivering written research and analysis, presentations and consulting services, is backed by decades of macroeconomic and market experience and can be tailored to your specific requirements.
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www.macrothoughts.co.uk
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