Back to the Future - In this report we consider the first half of 2021, and our expectations for the second half.
May and June might be the inflection point we have been warning of, where inflation starts to slow growth and the rebound.
It is looking like H2 will become more interesting; bonds have broken out of their slumber, China has started to make the Nasdaq nervous, the Dollar is stronger, commodity markets have corrected, and GDP expectations are being lowered, whilst the improvement in US unemployment seems to be slowing.
In this report we consider the first half of 2021, and our expectations for the second half.
Recognising the importance of the OPEC+ July meeting we felt we needed to delay this report in the hope that an agreement over the increase in oil production could be achieved - such is the importance of oil on growth forecasts. The initial market reaction was a rush to forecast oil prices to $100; we were not so sure. In our May 18 report, entitled ‘Extremes’, we anticipated corrections across asset classes: ‘Commodity markets are filled with consensus trades, and look ready for a sharp correction’.
Commodity and bond markets started to turn lower from May 19, and despite the price action following the June FOMC meeting, US 10 year yields are following Chinese yields lower.
Macro Thoughts 'The Week Ahead July 4-9, 2021 report: 'Bond yields of major markets are at support levels, with relatively dovish events expected during next week, however....
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