Beware the Bear!
Nine months ago, Macro Thoughts questioned Bond Bears who were looking for 3% and 4% yields. Days before the Fed raised rates in March, with 10 year yields at 2.63%, I recommended buying Receivers/Calls targeting 2.25% and 2.15%. Macro Thoughts also warned against complacency over low yields in August as they approached 2%, because at that time it was clear the Fed was ignoring inflation data and set to continue their rate increases.
With a more hawkish look to the Fed in 2018, rate hikes look set to continue, and with Bloomberg TV giving air to Bond Bears, yields may be expected to continue to rise, though Macro Thoughts doesn’t see the start of a Bear market until....Of a population of 327million, 95million are not in the workforce, compared with 80million in 2000, despite the workforce being just 2.5million smaller.
The early days of 2018 have seen a 3% rise in S&P, the best start to a year since 1987!!
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Since 2012, top tier global Hedge, Pension, Investment and Insurance Fund managers, as well as corporates and private individuals, have benefited from Macro Thoughts’ proven insight, market commentary, hedging, and investment strategies to leverage opportunities, with positive returns on over 75% of strategies, producing double digit returns for our clients over consecutive years.
Macro Thoughts is independently researched and draws on extensive macroeconomic and market experience gained in Fixed Income, Futures, Derivatives, Bond, Forex, Commodity and Equity Index markets and from strong Global Macro investment, risk taking and strategy backgrounds. Far-reaching product knowledge across asset classes enables us to consider hedging and investment strategies that reflect our expected market trends. Macro Thoughts is directed by Keith Grindlay, whose experience spans, somewhat uniquely, both the buy and sell side, having managed trading and investment desks at top tier institutions, ensuring all strategies are evaluated for risk/reward and the optimal instrument(s) for best leveraging the strategy suggested are employed.
Globally recognised for strong analytical skills, aligned with a particular aptitude for anticipating global economic events ahead of the majority of commentators, Macro Thoughts’ independent fundamental economic research and analysis and resultant strategies have a track record that assures exceptional results, with a service that surpasses the model of bank-supplied, partisan research and stands out from the general contributions on platforms that your clients and peers already have access to. The support and value offered by Macro Thoughts, delivering written research and analysis, presentations and consulting services, is backed by decades of macroeconomic and market experience and can be tailored to your specific requirements.
Member of the Royal Economic Society & EuroIRP, the European Association of Independent Research Providers.
www.macrothoughts.co.uk
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