Coalition chaos! Political risks across Europe set to continue.
Macro Thoughts considers the continuing political risks in Europe
Globally, the political climate is changing and this continues to be evident in Europe. If mainstream parties and national governments don’t make changes over the next 4 to 5 years, they risk losing more votes to extreme parties – it may have seemed that once the French had avoided a Le Pen government all risks were removed, but markets should be aware that whilst such risks may surface to the headlines at election times, they remain throughout, as Spain, Germany, the Netherlands and Austria all continue to be influenced by support for populist agendas.
Macro Thoughts, January 6, 2017, ‘During the first half of the year, Spanish bonds should hold a safer haven status against the political risks that will dominate other areas of Europe, but as markets focus on the results of Dutch, French and eventual German elections, at some point the potential fall out from a Catalan referendum will put pressure on Spanish bonds; therefore, timing to switch out of these bonds will be crucial, and not so obvious - probably much earlier than many are prepared for’.
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www.macrothoughts.co.uk
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