EUROPEAN POLITICS 2017
A country by country summary of European elections during 2017. Â
Whatever the outcome of Europe’s elections over the next 12 months, there will be long term implications. May’s trigger of Article 50 in March may still have issues, yet by the time negotiations are underway, who they are negotiated with, and how, may well have changed. The EU’s decision to lead with hardliners, such as French politician Michel Barnier, may need to be reassessed, as throughout Europe there is a movement for the same changes, with more nationalistic, populist parties gaining votes against ruling, Euro-centric parties.Â
The risks are far greater than markets are pricing.
- Ruling Centralist parties will be encouraged to move towards more populist policies
- Extreme Left Wing and Extreme Right Wing parties may lead governments across Europe
- Austerity pressures should ease
- Europe’s unity will be tested
On June 24, 2016, immediately after the UK referendum, Macro Thoughts pointed to the geopolitical risks to be anticipated, ‘This should send shock waves throughout Europe and European governments….Over the next 18 months, countries responsible for 90% of Europe’s GDP will hold elections: Spain this weekend, Germany and France next year. Japan will hold elections in July and the US Presidential elections are in November. Between these events, China, with total Debt to GDP of around 250%...will have to face up to record levels of bond repayments’.
Europe’s unemployment has still not recovered from the financial crisis and going into a year of Brexit negotiations and national elections throughout Europe, financial conditions are tightening, while the risk of higher inflation and potentially stagflation is increasing.Â
Italy...The next Italian general election isn’t due until 2018, but circumstances could be such that an election may be called in 2017, with Renzi, Monte and others all waiting in the wings                                                                   Â
Netherlands...​ Macro Thoughts has maintained that it is the Dutch elections that will be key for the future of Europe                                                                                                                                       Â
France...Le Pen, Fillon, Macron,Valls,Mélenchon            Â
Germany...Merkel should win the election, but the make up of her coalition will impact on all Europe, potentially preventing her intervention in the next crisis
Spain...referendum ?
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