Fed’s dilemma - Over-optimistic NFP forecasts continue to make significant job gains look worse than they actually are;
Over-optimistic Non-Farm Payroll forecasts continue to make significant job gains look worse than they actually are; markets may yet need to adjust to a wave of job losses, from corporate cost cutting. We don’t believe US unemployment data alone will affect the Fed’s decision-making in June.
Global inflation is now at the highest level since 2008, and rising; producer inflation is even stronger – the Fed, ECB, BOJ, RBA, BOE, etc., all have the loosest monetary policies on record, while governments have, and continue to, put trillions into their economies.
The Federal Reserve is buying $120bn of securities a month, $40bn of which are Mortgage Backed Securities – more money has gone into Money Market funds in 2021 than any other asset class. US equities are at record highs, commodity prices are at record highs, consumer inflation is at multi-year highs, producer prices are even stronger...
Our forecast for the widening of the gap between Consumer inflation and Producer inflation is now realised and this doesn’t just threaten the recovery, it risks at least an earnings recession...
In March, total foreign holdings of US Treasuries were reduced by $70bn...Russia has announced it is selling all of its US Dollar assets...
Macro Thoughts Ltd
Member of Euro IRP and the Royal Economic Society
Since 2012, top tier global Hedge, Pension, Investment and Insurance Fund managers, as well as corporates and private individuals, have benefited from Macro Thoughts’ proven insight, market commentary, hedging, and investment strategies to leverage opportunities, with positive returns on over 75% of strategies, producing double digit returns for our clients over consecutive years.
Macro Thoughts is independently researched and draws on extensive macroeconomic and market experience gained in Fixed Income, Futures, Derivatives, Bond, Forex, Commodity and Equity Index markets and from strong Global Macro investment, risk taking and strategy backgrounds. Far-reaching product knowledge across asset classes enables us to consider hedging and investment strategies that reflect our expected market trends. Macro Thoughts is directed by Keith Grindlay, whose experience spans, somewhat uniquely, both the buy and sell side, having managed trading and investment desks at top tier institutions, ensuring all strategies are evaluated for risk/reward and the optimal instrument(s) for best leveraging the strategy suggested are employed.
Globally recognised for strong analytical skills, aligned with a particular aptitude for anticipating global economic events ahead of the majority of commentators, Macro Thoughts’ independent fundamental economic research and analysis and resultant strategies have a track record that assures exceptional results, with a service that surpasses the model of bank-supplied, partisan research and stands out from the general contributions on platforms that your clients and peers already have access to. The support and value offered by Macro Thoughts, delivering written research and analysis, presentations and consulting services, is backed by decades of macroeconomic and market experience and can be tailored to your specific requirements.
Member of the Royal Economic Society & EuroIRP, the European Association of Independent Research Providers.
www.macrothoughts.co.uk
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