Here we go again - Macro Thoughts UK Update
‘Throughout the second half of 2017, my non-consensus monthly forecasts for CPI and Core CPI helped to correctly anticipate the rate increase in November, as I expected CPI to fall faster than BOE forecasts. In June 2017, Macro Thoughts was the first to calculate the BOE would raise rates in November and favoured shorting 2 year Gilt yields at single digit levels (0.08%). Since then, many commentators have suggested further rate increases to come in 2018. I am not currently of that belief and it may be that the BOE waits to follow the ECB’s first rate increase’, Macro Thoughts, ‘UK Update’, February 2, 2018.
Macro Thoughts was the first to see a rebound in the UK economy, at corporate and consumer level, expecting inflation to fall faster than the BOE’s November forecasts, and now in its February QIR, the BOE has raised its 2018 GDP expectation closer to my forecast.
Raise rates too quickly and trade, consumer confidence, mortgage rates and Sterling could all be impacted negatively, which could have political implications.
www.macrothoughts.co.uk
Since 2012, top tier global Hedge, Pension, Investment and Insurance Fund managers, as well as corporates and private individuals, have benefited from Macro Thoughts’ proven insight, market commentary, hedging, and investment strategies to leverage opportunities, with positive returns on over 75% of strategies, producing double digit returns for our clients over consecutive years.
Macro Thoughts is independently researched and draws on extensive macroeconomic and market experience gained in Fixed Income, Futures, Derivatives, Bond, Forex, Commodity and Equity Index markets and from strong Global Macro investment, risk taking and strategy backgrounds. Far-reaching product knowledge across asset classes enables us to consider hedging and investment strategies that reflect our expected market trends. Macro Thoughts is directed by Keith Grindlay, whose experience spans, somewhat uniquely, both the buy and sell side, having managed trading and investment desks at top tier institutions, ensuring all strategies are evaluated for risk/reward and the optimal instrument(s) for best leveraging the strategy suggested are employed.
Globally recognised for strong analytical skills, aligned with a particular aptitude for anticipating global economic events ahead of the majority of commentators, Macro Thoughts’ independent fundamental economic research and analysis and resultant strategies have a track record that assures exceptional results, with a service that surpasses the model of bank-supplied, partisan research and stands out from the general contributions on platforms that your clients and peers already have access to. The support and value offered by Macro Thoughts, delivering written research and analysis, presentations and consulting services, is backed by decades of macroeconomic and market experience and can be tailored to your specific requirements.
Member of the Royal Economic Society & EuroIRP, the European Association of Independent Research Providers.
www.macrothoughts.co.uk
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