IMF upgrading growth confirms Macro Thoughts’ fears for EM
Macro Thoughts May 10, 2018 - IMF upgrading growth confirms Macro Thoughts’ fears for EM
Only this week, in its latest release of economic forecasts, the IMF upgraded its forecasts for Asia from last October, with growth of 5.6% now expected, which might suggest Macro Thoughts has been wrong in its assumption that Asian growth has been slowing.
Actually, if anything, the details within the report are a confirmation of Macro Thoughts’ assessment that economies are slowing, and the risks of a global melt down are as real now as at any time since the financial crisis.
- IMF EM growth optimism masks mounting risks from higher oil prices
- EM Capital outflows may have only just begun - central banks are being forced to raise rates to defend currencies, despite weaker economies
- China is cutting rates to stimulate its economy
- Emerging Market bond underperformance, a Fund Manager problem
- Pension funds and investments are at high risk of under performing after the scramble for high yield
- High deficit EM countries under threat
- Slowing Asia impacting on Europe
- CEE slowdown impacting on Euro Area growth
- Greece and the ECB will face debt restructuring and end of bailout, against a background of increased uncertainty and higher global yields
Here is Macro Thoughts' original report
Macro Thoughts’ report on Emerging Market debt risks, June 28, 2017 ‘Developed economies tend to be the larger importers of oil; however, India is one of the world’s largest oil importers, importing 80% of the oil it requires. Falling oil prices will benefit India’s growth and help lower inflation. India’s GDP annual percentage growth for 2015 was 7.9% and the OECD is forecasting India to remain the fastest growing G20 economy. India has recently opened its commodity derivative market to hedge funds, which will increase the risk of volatile pricing’.
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