Is it Merkel that has to stand aside if Europe is to remain united?
As the distraction of Brexit is demoted to second fiddle, Europe has started to face up to its real challenges, which need to be solved to maintain its future, and perhaps it will need Europe’s saviour of the past to step aside.
This weekend, a limited number of EU leaders were set for a low key meeting in Brussels to smooth out an agenda for the summit being held on June 28 and 29, but this has now become key to the future of the EU, and Merkel. Whereas Juncker was prepared to gamble on UK membership, and Cameron’s future, he is not prepared to make the same mistake with Merkel, and is calling for a summit on migration to save her. The meeting is expected to include the leaders of France, Italy, Austria, Netherlands, Greece, Bulgaria, Malta and Spain, as well as Germany. While in Budapest, Austrian, Czech Republic, Polish and Slovakian leaders met for their own meeting of minds.
This week, the Chinese cabinet produced a policy paper that confirmed they are preparing to act again, and this should be a warning to central banks, especially the Federal Reserve, as it has been the ups and downs of China’s economy that have determined the positives and negatives of global growth since the financial crisis.
As a result, markets need to rethink strategies, as medium-term, multi-year trends have ended, and new long-term trends, that Macro Thoughts has previously emphasised, look to have taken root, (see Macro Thoughts, May 25, 2018, ‘In April Macro Thoughts forecast a change in trend for the US Dollar - Macro Thoughts chartbook update’).
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