Italian - French divide puts pressure on Germany to take sides
‘The upcoming summer is a moment of truth.’ Emmanuel Macron
Macro Thoughts, December 31, 2017, ‘While the European economy may have stabilised over the past twelve months, political risks and the ending of QE suggest volatility will return, and after its best year since 2003, the Euro may come under pressure during the first half of the year.’
Led by slowing in Asia, Macro Thoughts believes global growth has peaked and this will impact on Europe harder than most regions, while political differences between France and Italy threaten to divide Europe more than ever.
Prior to February’s equity markets sell off, Macro Thoughts stressed the low level of volatility and the skew in German Bunds and warned of the potential for an imminent reaction in markets, and at the beginning of May, only days before US yields rose above 3%, bond Option Volatility had fallen again to record lows, highlighting risks of a sharp correction.
www.macrothoughts.co.uk
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Globally recognised for strong analytical skills, aligned with a particular aptitude for anticipating global economic events ahead of the majority of commentators, Macro Thoughts’ independent fundamental economic research and analysis and resultant strategies have a track record that assures exceptional results, with a service that surpasses the model of bank-supplied, partisan research and stands out from the general contributions on platforms that your clients and peers already have access to. The support and value offered by Macro Thoughts, delivering written research and analysis, presentations and consulting services, is backed by decades of macroeconomic and market experience and can be tailored to your specific requirements.
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www.macrothoughts.co.uk
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