Low Volatility? Yet Macro Risks Over The Next 12 Months Will Increase
Market volatility is unusually low across assets...
Globally, central banks are grappling with policy - the BoJ is reviewing its policy, Carney has drastically misjudged Brexit and China has output, inventory and debt problems. The next shock to hit markets is likely to come from Italy. Brexit was seen as a threat to the EU, but Renzi being forced into an election – whatever its outcome – will change the political landscape of Europe, even before German, French and Dutch elections next year...On August 24th 2015 The Dow Dropped 1000 Points, And Geopolitical Risks Over The Next 12 Months Are Now Even Greater...
Macro Thoughts August 21, 2015, ‘Despite data yet to feed fully into developed economies, stock markets have begun to react, potentially beginning a significant correction lower. After earlier warning not to be short of volatility in August, last week Macro Thoughts specifically re-emphasised not to be short of equity volatility. On Friday, the Dow Index fell 530 points and VIX stock market volatility rallied to 28%, from 13% - 14% at the start of the week. Prior to this week, the S&P had had one of its longest runs without a correction of 5% or more….Macro Thoughts’ initial target for the Dow remains between 15,850 and 15,550’.
Options in US 10year Treasuries look particularly cheap at...
Since 2012, top tier global Hedge, Pension, Investment and Insurance Fund managers, as well as corporates and private individuals, have benefited from Macro Thoughts’ proven insight, market commentary, hedging, and investment strategies to leverage opportunities, with positive returns on over 75% of strategies, producing double digit returns for our clients over consecutive years.
Macro Thoughts is independently researched and draws on extensive macroeconomic and market experience gained in Fixed Income, Futures, Derivatives, Bond, Forex, Commodity and Equity Index markets and from strong Global Macro investment, risk taking and strategy backgrounds. Far-reaching product knowledge across asset classes enables us to consider hedging and investment strategies that reflect our expected market trends. Macro Thoughts is directed by Keith Grindlay, whose experience spans, somewhat uniquely, both the buy and sell side, having managed trading and investment desks at top tier institutions, ensuring all strategies are evaluated for risk/reward and the optimal instrument(s) for best leveraging the strategy suggested are employed.
Globally recognised for strong analytical skills, aligned with a particular aptitude for anticipating global economic events ahead of the majority of commentators, Macro Thoughts’ independent fundamental economic research and analysis and resultant strategies have a track record that assures exceptional results, with a service that surpasses the model of bank-supplied, partisan research and stands out from the general contributions on platforms that your clients and peers already have access to. The support and value offered by Macro Thoughts, delivering written research and analysis, presentations and consulting services, is backed by decades of macroeconomic and market experience and can be tailored to your specific requirements.
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