Report
Keith Grindlay
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M & Di M need to be Smarties

The improvement in UK economic activity, at the same time that Europe’s economies are decelerating, should give Brexit negotiations a spur; the risks and opportunities for both the UK and Europe need to be assessed and there is much to lose, but Europe may be running out of time. The European member states need strong national leadership, not political infighting, but with Merkel no longer the force she was, it is left to the establishment’s Macron and the populist Di Maio to find Europe’s future.

 The UK accounts for more than a fifth of the services sold by the EU trading block, worth Eur183bn in 2016, and eleven countries (including Germany, the Netherlands and Ireland) have the UK as one of their top four trading partners for exporting goods. 

Bank of Italy Governor Ignazio Visco said, if a new financial crisis should hit, the country was now ‘much more vulnerable than we were 10 years ago’, therefore the ECB and even the IMF will be keeping a watchful eye, especially as several of its banks continue to be a risk to the economy, despite consensus expectations, and although Eur32bn of bad credit has been sold through a state guarantee scheme, a significant rise in bad and doubtful debts can be expected during the remainder of the year.

Italy actually pays more into the EU than it receives, only the UK, Germany and France paying more....

Inflation should be helped by a correction in oil prices and imported materials; however, some food prices, globally, will be impacted by Europe’s extreme weather conditions in 2018. Having met, but not broken, a long-term uptrend resistance in June, oil prices have fallen more than 10% off the year’s highs but, despite this, at the beginning of last week, over 65% of the market were still long and have increased their longs during the price decline.

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Macro Thoughts Ltd
Macro Thoughts Ltd

Since 2012, top tier global Hedge, Pension, Investment and Insurance Fund managers, as well as corporates and private individuals, have benefited from Macro Thoughts’ proven insight, market commentary, hedging, and investment strategies to leverage opportunities, with positive returns on over 75% of strategies, producing double digit returns for our clients over consecutive years.

Macro Thoughts is independently researched and draws on extensive macroeconomic and market experience gained in Fixed Income, Futures, Derivatives, Bond, Forex, Commodity and Equity Index markets and from strong Global Macro investment, risk taking and strategy backgrounds. Far-reaching product knowledge across asset classes enables us to consider hedging and investment strategies that reflect our expected market trends. Macro Thoughts is directed by Keith Grindlay, whose experience spans, somewhat uniquely, both the buy and sell side, having managed trading and investment desks at top tier institutions, ensuring all strategies are evaluated for risk/reward and the optimal instrument(s) for best leveraging the strategy suggested are employed.

Globally recognised for strong analytical skills, aligned with a particular aptitude for anticipating global economic events ahead of the majority of commentators, Macro Thoughts’ independent fundamental economic research and analysis and resultant strategies have a track record that assures exceptional results, with a service that surpasses the model of bank-supplied, partisan research and stands out from the general contributions on platforms that your clients and peers already have access to. The support and value offered by Macro Thoughts, delivering written research and analysis, presentations and consulting services, is backed by decades of macroeconomic and market experience and can be tailored to your specific requirements.

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Keith Grindlay

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