M.T. Jun 24 & 26, BREXIT - NO NEED FOR THE SULKY CHILD
Macro Thoughts was asked to contribute to ‘Hedgeweek’ and ‘Wealth Adviser’ an analysis of the UK referendum result by midday Friday. Please find this report together with Macro Thoughts June 26.
​Macro Thoughts June 26: 'BREXIT - NO NEED FOR THE SULKY CHILD' - There is a chance to make a change, to make things better...
By the time Article 50 is finally negotiated, what seems scary territory now may well be looked back on after two years as the catalyst for much needed change and progress... Cameron and Osborne have successfully guided the UK away from the 2008 crisis and despite only having limited success with deficits, they have been able to develop a business-friendly economy...
‘overoptimistic positioning that had built in markets needed to be unwound and central banks must not overreact. Even though the market adjustment was extreme to start with, there is not the same panic feel of 1992’. By the close of markets on Friday, the 5 day change in Eurostocks was a fall of only 2.5%, while the FTSE.... ​
​​​Macro Thoughts June 24: 'THANKS A 1.27MILLION!'
As if 1.27 million more UK voters voting to leave Europe than to stay wasn’t shock enough, David Cameron has proven that UK unemployment would go higher with a vote to leave, by increasing unemployment by one.
Macro Thoughts felt that Gilt yields would hold 1%.... UK Gilt market was as calm as any. At the start of June, markets had priced 10year Gilts at 1.44% and by June 16th this had dropped to 1.07%, before recovering to 1.37% the day before the vote. At the open, Gilts dropped that entire range to new all time lows of 1.01%.
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