New President- changes are needed this time.
​By the time they meet again in December, a new President will be in the White House, yet the problems that have been around since day one of the Obama administration remain basically the same. ​But whilst the immediate reaction to a Clinton or Trump triumph might be predictable, what will be more important is the overall impact a four year term under either may have, which could be very different to what is now assumed.
Macro Thoughts had expected the seasonal impact of increased retail activity to push Non Farm Payrolls higher than the 175k expected, however the October increase of 161k ....​ The noticeable change is in the make up of employment, where higher paid jobs are growing, whereas previously it was lower paid workers that were gaining jobs; this is potentially why Average Hourly Earnings improved by 0.4%mom, 2.8%yoy, the best since June 2009, but given the average hourly wage is $25.92, this is an average hourly increase of just $0.71c from 12months ago.
Real US GDP, stripping out inventories and exports (which were boosted by Soya), was just 1.4%, which is not a sign of strength...
Macro Thoughts August 11, 2016, ‘There is no reason to believe UK rates will go negative, other than the fact that Carney has said they won’t. Inflation should start to feed through over the next few months, though the true extent at which prices could increase will probably take up to 12 months’.... Macro Thoughts forecast inflation for 2017 of between 2.5% and 3% and growth for 2017 and 2018 of between 1.5% and 2%....​ The 2y5y part of the curve may be considered...
​​​ The impact of weak demand and low oil prices has hit shipping companies hard. Over the past 5years, Macro Thoughts has criticised the estimates of Maersk Line, the world’s largest container shipping company. This week it announced its profits will fall by 43%...
Since 2012, top tier global Hedge, Pension, Investment and Insurance Fund managers, as well as corporates and private individuals, have benefited from Macro Thoughts’ proven insight, market commentary, hedging, and investment strategies to leverage opportunities, with positive returns on over 75% of strategies, producing double digit returns for our clients over consecutive years.
Macro Thoughts is independently researched and draws on extensive macroeconomic and market experience gained in Fixed Income, Futures, Derivatives, Bond, Forex, Commodity and Equity Index markets and from strong Global Macro investment, risk taking and strategy backgrounds. Far-reaching product knowledge across asset classes enables us to consider hedging and investment strategies that reflect our expected market trends. Macro Thoughts is directed by Keith Grindlay, whose experience spans, somewhat uniquely, both the buy and sell side, having managed trading and investment desks at top tier institutions, ensuring all strategies are evaluated for risk/reward and the optimal instrument(s) for best leveraging the strategy suggested are employed.
Globally recognised for strong analytical skills, aligned with a particular aptitude for anticipating global economic events ahead of the majority of commentators, Macro Thoughts’ independent fundamental economic research and analysis and resultant strategies have a track record that assures exceptional results, with a service that surpasses the model of bank-supplied, partisan research and stands out from the general contributions on platforms that your clients and peers already have access to. The support and value offered by Macro Thoughts, delivering written research and analysis, presentations and consulting services, is backed by decades of macroeconomic and market experience and can be tailored to your specific requirements.
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