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UK economic recovery and European political risks may start to impact on Brexit negotiation. Are Europe's politicians already acting, they have only 4 to 5 years?
UK Consumers spent in August, but remain under pressure. Visa Card UK reports spending up 1.4% in August, after a fall of -0.4% in July, though year-on-year remained negative, -0.3%. Spending has contracted in 4 of the past 5 months, the longest period since 2013.
Next week’s release of CPI data for September should give a final confirmation (if it was needed) to the Bank of England, that a rate increase is essential, (and a second is possible in 2018). Macro Thoughts forecast above consensus 2.9% for August, which has brought many into line with my forecast of a rate increase in 2017, made in June.
Throughout the year, European markets have been focused on the political risks of the Netherlands, France and Germany, but little attention has been given to this weekend’s Austrian election.
Since May 2016, Macro Thoughts has warned of the volatility in European peripheral bond yields, and with liquidity being so poor, and global issuance expected to increase sharply, led by the US, this is where a market shock could occur. Markets can expect a reduction of bond purchases, (probably reducing by half to Eur30bn), over an extended period of 6 to 9 months.
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Since 2012, top tier global Hedge, Pension, Investment and Insurance Fund managers, as well as corporates and private individuals, have benefited from Macro Thoughts’ proven insight, market commentary, hedging, and investment strategies to leverage opportunities, with positive returns on over 75% of strategies, producing double digit returns for our clients over consecutive years.
Macro Thoughts is independently researched and draws on extensive macroeconomic and market experience gained in Fixed Income, Futures, Derivatives, Bond, Forex, Commodity and Equity Index markets and from strong Global Macro investment, risk taking and strategy backgrounds. Far-reaching product knowledge across asset classes enables us to consider hedging and investment strategies that reflect our expected market trends. Macro Thoughts is directed by Keith Grindlay, whose experience spans, somewhat uniquely, both the buy and sell side, having managed trading and investment desks at top tier institutions, ensuring all strategies are evaluated for risk/reward and the optimal instrument(s) for best leveraging the strategy suggested are employed.
Globally recognised for strong analytical skills, aligned with a particular aptitude for anticipating global economic events ahead of the majority of commentators, Macro Thoughts’ independent fundamental economic research and analysis and resultant strategies have a track record that assures exceptional results, with a service that surpasses the model of bank-supplied, partisan research and stands out from the general contributions on platforms that your clients and peers already have access to. The support and value offered by Macro Thoughts, delivering written research and analysis, presentations and consulting services, is backed by decades of macroeconomic and market experience and can be tailored to your specific requirements.
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www.macrothoughts.co.uk
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