Paying the price
In this report, Macro Thoughts considers the economic data and central bank policies of the US, China, Canada, Europe, India, Australia and Japan, but points out that it has been the RBNZ that has been the most innovative of central banks - and that it's bucking the trend.
- India suffering from WPI prices spiking
- Chinese GDP of 6.4% by year end
- Asian economies continuing to slow, following deceleration in the final quarter of 2017 (Malaysia, Indonesia, South Korea, Singapore)
- EM & China slowing to impact on Germany and Europe (German Factory Orders being negative)
- UK GDP of 1.6% - 1.7% and CPI of 2% is slowly becoming consensus
- Weakening Japanese economy; GDP was negative in Q1
- Australia is suffering from China’s slowdown, highlighted by lower property prices, while Capital Expenditure contracted -0.9% in Q4 2017
- Pakistan to follow Turkey and Argentina as the next domino, having received funding from the IMF, China and Saudi Arabia
- The US housing market is in decline, homeownership being at a record low, and auto-sales have continued their decline, (interrupted by the replacement of cars lost in east cost storms at the end of 2017)
Macro Thoughts’ forecast for global GDP has been considerably lower than consensus all year, and although IMF expectations have been lowered, they will continue to overestimate growth into 2019. With trade tensions likely to extend into next year, Chinese growth could fall to 6% and US growth to 2%, and with debt rising, assumptions and fears over deficit levels will intensify.
Macro Thoughts Ltd
Since 2012, top tier global Hedge, Pension, Investment and Insurance Fund managers, as well as corporates and private individuals, have benefited from Macro Thoughts’ proven insight, market commentary, hedging, and investment strategies to leverage opportunities, with positive returns on over 75% of strategies, producing double digit returns for our clients over consecutive years.
Macro Thoughts is independently researched and draws on extensive macroeconomic and market experience gained in Fixed Income, Futures, Derivatives, Bond, Forex, Commodity and Equity Index markets and from strong Global Macro investment, risk taking and strategy backgrounds. Far-reaching product knowledge across asset classes enables us to consider hedging and investment strategies that reflect our expected market trends. Macro Thoughts is directed by Keith Grindlay, whose experience spans, somewhat uniquely, both the buy and sell side, having managed trading and investment desks at top tier institutions, ensuring all strategies are evaluated for risk/reward and the optimal instrument(s) for best leveraging the strategy suggested are employed.
Globally recognised for strong analytical skills, aligned with a particular aptitude for anticipating global economic events ahead of the majority of commentators, Macro Thoughts’ independent fundamental economic research and analysis and resultant strategies have a track record that assures exceptional results, with a service that surpasses the model of bank-supplied, partisan research and stands out from the general contributions on platforms that your clients and peers already have access to. The support and value offered by Macro Thoughts, delivering written research and analysis, presentations and consulting services, is backed by decades of macroeconomic and market experience and can be tailored to your specific requirements.
Member of the Royal Economic Society & EuroIRP, the European Association of Independent Research Providers.
www.macrothoughts.co.uk
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