Pricing out the Financial Crisis?
In 2008, inflation peaked at 5.6% before collapsing to 0.1% by year end, whilst expectations were for Fed Funds to exceed 5%, amid calls for the end of the bond bull market. Today, US yields from 1 month to 3 years are the highest since 2008, while US 10 year bond yields are the highest since 2014.
Is it also possible for European and Japanese central banks to continue with loose policies, including QE, with US markets pricing for inflation that hasn’t arrived yet, or could higher interest rates, commodity and energy costs lead to the same events that started the subprime crisis, which spread globally, and holes in economic recovery start to be found out?
www.macrothoughts.co.uk
(Those who follow Macro Thoughts will know I have been bullish for Sterling since March 2017, when Cable was 1.22. GBPUSD has advanced to 1.39, closing in on my second target of 1.40, where some profits should be taken and option strikes rolled (1yr and 2yr)).
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