Reaching the eye of the storm
​An apt thought maybe, given the step down on securing a reference to climate change in the G20 finance minsters’ statement this week, but after months of political and economic activity, now should be a time for lower market volatility - before facing more headwinds later in the year. The G20 also failed to agree on free trade commitments or reject protectionism, so is this the time for the Fed to start ignoring Growth, and are markets prepared for another economic shock?
With the Fed able to step back for a few months, and with Article 50 triggered (I expect this to be announced next week), markets may already have started to build low risk carry/roll trades, especially as it may now need an event shock to push US yields through 2.64% in 10 years, despite all the high profile predictions for the end of the bond bull market.
Taking profits and setting carry trades for the next few weeks
Over the past nine months, I have highlighted key event risks ahead of the majority of commentators, which has meant good performance, and those who have followed the leveraged opportunities since the beginning of this year should be set to realise a profit of around 5% to 7% to portfolio for the first quarter of the year.
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