REPORT 1 FED prepared to run the risks REPORT 2 ECB not prepared to run the risks UK Royal recovery
REPORT 1
The Federal Reserve was once known as the Central Bank of the world, willing to adjust policy when needed - but no longer. This Fed is set on a course to raise rates and ignore the consequences and at this week’s FOMC meeting they raised rate hike expectations for 2018, despite increasing global and domestic risks.
The lead up to a global recession may have already started and the ECB is suffering the same problems as the BOJ in the 1990s. (Macro Thoughts’ ECB report to follow.)
REPORT 2
The withdrawal of QE is a reaction to a global reduction in demand for money and central banks are acting to match this, with a reduction in the amount of money supplied within the system. Yet the effect of this balancing act, with tightening conditions for household budgets, could have a riskier impact than they anticipate; therefore, giving guidance is the ECB’s attempt to smooth the transition, weaning the global economy off the hard stuff.
The ECB’s announcement could push Volatility lower, but there is no reason to be complacent, especially if the Euro starts to devalue too quickly.
Highlighting weddings, weather and football, Macro Thoughts has been more optimistic for the UK economy than most, anticipating a recovery in 2018 and, despite weakness in Q1, maintained its GDP forecast of 1.7% for the year.
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