Slowing Asian growth threatens Europe’s recovery, potentially creating greater EU problems with CEE than Brexit
Asia may be showing signs of slowing and if demand doesn’t meet the supply, there could be a growth shock in 2018, and Central Eastern Europe looks very vulnerable.
The problems Merkel has faced in forming a coalition, having to appease the SDP, which looks for ever-closer European ties, could conversely result in driving the EU and CEE members apart.
Bulgaria - For the first time since joining the EU, Bulgaria has taken over the EU’s six month rotating presidency
Romania - Germany accounts for over 20% of Romanian exports, therefore the surprising strength of the German economy in 2017 will have had a positive impact, though it may also encourage more Romanian workers to move to Germany
Poland - On 20 December, the European Commission launched disciplinary proceedings, triggering Article 7 of the EU Treaty (for the first time) against Poland
Hungary - The healthy economy should be encouraging for Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, with a general election expected in April or May...In 2015, Austria took in more than 1% of its population in asylum seekers, one of the highest rates in the EU, and this resulted in political changes
Czech Republic - Babiš presented a 2018 budget by December 19, largely based on the budget of the outgoing cabinet, which included members of Babiš’ ANO party, and foresees a sizeable fiscal deficit in 2018
www.macrothoughts.co.uk
Since 2012, top tier global Hedge, Pension, Investment and Insurance Fund managers, as well as corporates and private individuals, have benefited from Macro Thoughts’ proven insight, market commentary, hedging, and investment strategies to leverage opportunities, with positive returns on over 75% of strategies, producing double digit returns for our clients over consecutive years.
Macro Thoughts is independently researched and draws on extensive macroeconomic and market experience gained in Fixed Income, Futures, Derivatives, Bond, Forex, Commodity and Equity Index markets and from strong Global Macro investment, risk taking and strategy backgrounds. Far-reaching product knowledge across asset classes enables us to consider hedging and investment strategies that reflect our expected market trends. Macro Thoughts is directed by Keith Grindlay, whose experience spans, somewhat uniquely, both the buy and sell side, having managed trading and investment desks at top tier institutions, ensuring all strategies are evaluated for risk/reward and the optimal instrument(s) for best leveraging the strategy suggested are employed.
Globally recognised for strong analytical skills, aligned with a particular aptitude for anticipating global economic events ahead of the majority of commentators, Macro Thoughts’ independent fundamental economic research and analysis and resultant strategies have a track record that assures exceptional results, with a service that surpasses the model of bank-supplied, partisan research and stands out from the general contributions on platforms that your clients and peers already have access to. The support and value offered by Macro Thoughts, delivering written research and analysis, presentations and consulting services, is backed by decades of macroeconomic and market experience and can be tailored to your specific requirements.
Member of the Royal Economic Society & EuroIRP, the European Association of Independent Research Providers.
www.macrothoughts.co.uk
Unfortunately, this report is not available for the investor type or country you selected.
Browse all ResearchPool reportsReport is subscription only.
Thank you, your report is ready.
Thank you, your report is ready.