The Butterfly Theory - A Macro Thoughts Report
Is CPI really so strong, or were expectations wrong, and should US GDP for Q4 be revised lower along with expectations for Q1?
Central banks are becoming so fixated on inflation they may be missing the risks that have started to develop elsewhere. At some point, the Dollar should receive a temporary boost from tax induced inflows, and oil prices look set to fall later in the year, but will it be enough, as the US consumer appears to be preparing for the worst?
The US economy is consumer driven and higher oil prices and perhaps more importantly interest rates may already be having an adverse affect; high interest rate expectations will encourage debts to be repaid, rather than increase spending, and this will result in a need to reassess US growth and government debt projections, especially after Retail Sales data, which, as forecast by Macro Thoughts, are returning to trend…
Retail sales in Europe have stalled, (mom Austria -1.8%, Belgium -0.3%, France -0.8% EuroArea -1.1%) and while German and French qoq growth was 0.6% and Spain’s 0.7%, Italy’s was 0.3% and EuroArea 0.6%. These compare to the UK, which is seen as weak, at 0.5%, where 2 year interest rates are 125bp higher than German yields. Strong PMIs suggest increased supply, but with weak Retail Sales, again there is a suggestion that oversupply is not being met by demand, which could be storing up trouble for later.
MACRO THOUGHTS - BESPOKE RESEARCH / MARKET COMMENTARY / CONSULTANCY
Since 2012, top tier global Hedge, Pension, Investment and Insurance Fund managers, as well as corporates and private individuals, have benefited from Macro Thoughts’ proven insight, market commentary, hedging, and investment strategies to leverage opportunities, with positive returns on over 75% of strategies, producing double digit returns for our clients over consecutive years.
Macro Thoughts is independently researched and draws on extensive macroeconomic and market experience gained in Fixed Income, Futures, Derivatives, Bond, Forex, Commodity and Equity Index markets and from strong Global Macro investment, risk taking and strategy backgrounds. Far-reaching product knowledge across asset classes enables us to consider hedging and investment strategies that reflect our expected market trends. Macro Thoughts is directed by Keith Grindlay, whose experience spans, somewhat uniquely, both the buy and sell side, having managed trading and investment desks at top tier institutions, ensuring all strategies are evaluated for risk/reward and the optimal instrument(s) for best leveraging the strategy suggested are employed.
Globally recognised for strong analytical skills, aligned with a particular aptitude for anticipating global economic events ahead of the majority of commentators, Macro Thoughts’ independent fundamental economic research and analysis and resultant strategies have a track record that assures exceptional results, with a service that surpasses the model of bank-supplied, partisan research and stands out from the general contributions on platforms that your clients and peers already have access to. The support and value offered by Macro Thoughts, delivering written research and analysis, presentations and consulting services, is backed by decades of macroeconomic and market experience and can be tailored to your specific requirements.
Member of the Royal Economic Society & EuroIRP, the European Association of Independent Research Providers.
www.macrothoughts.co.uk
Unfortunately, this report is not available for the investor type or country you selected.
Browse all ResearchPool reportsReport is subscription only.
Thank you, your report is ready.
Thank you, your report is ready.