Theory of spreadsheets vs. the reality of the real world
The Fed and markets could be underestimating how much of the front of the curve is being influenced by flow rather than market expectations - could it take 30 year yields to drop below 3% before they start to take notice?
Notably, as central banks withdraw from US debt, the Dollar has strengthened, suggesting currency outflows in Emerging Markets may be higher than is being reported.
Russia holds less US debt than Bermuda after dumping half its holdings, having sold $47.4bn of the $96.1bn held in March.
'Macro Thoughts has identified some key market trend moves across asset classes, some of which have started to develop, and some of which look to be only just starting, which markets may not be ready or positioned for.'
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