Trump gets his tax changes, the Fed is set to become more hawkish, but can they ignore Q4 GDP ?
Large vehicle auto sales in the US were down 85% in November with only 28 sales, potentially reflecting the increase in fuel prices.
Concerns over the impact of this (tax) bill on Federal Debt are justified; ultimately, it is expected to increase debt issuance by more than $1tn over the next 10 years, depending on the strength of growth. And here is the concern - GDP data has moved above 3% for the past two quarters, but only because Private Inventory Investment has been high, adding 0.8% to Q3, which would otherwise have been at or below 2.5%, leaving 2017 GDP near to 2.25%.
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Macro Thoughts is independently researched, directed by Keith Grindlay, drawing on his considerable experience in Fixed Income, Futures, Derivatives, Bond, Forex, Commodity and Equity Index markets and strong Global Macro investment, trading and strategy background. Extensive product knowledge across asset classes enables him to consider hedging and investment strategies that reflect expected market trends.
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Since 2012, top tier global Hedge, Pension, Investment and Insurance Fund managers, as well as corporates and private individuals, have benefited from Macro Thoughts’ proven insight, market commentary, hedging, and investment strategies to leverage opportunities, with positive returns on over 75% of strategies, producing double digit returns for our clients over consecutive years.
Macro Thoughts is independently researched and draws on extensive macroeconomic and market experience gained in Fixed Income, Futures, Derivatives, Bond, Forex, Commodity and Equity Index markets and from strong Global Macro investment, risk taking and strategy backgrounds. Far-reaching product knowledge across asset classes enables us to consider hedging and investment strategies that reflect our expected market trends. Macro Thoughts is directed by Keith Grindlay, whose experience spans, somewhat uniquely, both the buy and sell side, having managed trading and investment desks at top tier institutions, ensuring all strategies are evaluated for risk/reward and the optimal instrument(s) for best leveraging the strategy suggested are employed.
Globally recognised for strong analytical skills, aligned with a particular aptitude for anticipating global economic events ahead of the majority of commentators, Macro Thoughts’ independent fundamental economic research and analysis and resultant strategies have a track record that assures exceptional results, with a service that surpasses the model of bank-supplied, partisan research and stands out from the general contributions on platforms that your clients and peers already have access to. The support and value offered by Macro Thoughts, delivering written research and analysis, presentations and consulting services, is backed by decades of macroeconomic and market experience and can be tailored to your specific requirements.
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www.macrothoughts.co.uk
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