Twelve months since central banks started to tighten the screws. Fearing the Fed’s balance sheet reduction.
www.macrothoughts.co.uk
In 2015, China started exporting deflation, and now it may be Fed policy that starts to push prices lower.
• Falling commodity prices should keep all asset classes alert
• Likelihood of oil prices following commodity markets again
• History suggests Fed balance sheet reductions don’t go well
• Underlying inflation trend is still down
• Ignoring US data is beginning to worry some Fed members
• Macro Thoughts remains optimist for the UK economy – Europe set for change
MT Sept 16, 2016, ‘Merkel’s recent regional election defeat and the increasing influence of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) Party should be sending signals throughout Europe, as this may eventually be seen as the beginning of a very different EU’.
Macro Thoughts is available for bespoke research and consultation.
Previous Macro Thoughts Ltd reports
• Midweek report – political risk that could destabilise oil and gas prices
• Are the dynamics of Brexit negotiations about to change?
• You may find it surprising, but Macro Thoughts warns against complacency over lower yields.
• When economies are fragile, even the smallest headwind can have an impact, so when a hurricane comes along, the impact can be far reaching.
• Fed policy doubts will make the ECB’s QE decision more difficult
• Why is it the UK is the only G10 country struggling with too high inflation?
• ‘It’s the consumer, stupid!’
Since 2012, top tier global Hedge, Pension, Investment and Insurance Fund managers, as well as corporates and private individuals, have benefited from Macro Thoughts’ proven insight, market commentary, hedging, and investment strategies to leverage opportunities, with positive returns on over 75% of strategies, producing double digit returns for our clients over consecutive years.
Macro Thoughts is independently researched and draws on extensive macroeconomic and market experience gained in Fixed Income, Futures, Derivatives, Bond, Forex, Commodity and Equity Index markets and from strong Global Macro investment, risk taking and strategy backgrounds. Far-reaching product knowledge across asset classes enables us to consider hedging and investment strategies that reflect our expected market trends. Macro Thoughts is directed by Keith Grindlay, whose experience spans, somewhat uniquely, both the buy and sell side, having managed trading and investment desks at top tier institutions, ensuring all strategies are evaluated for risk/reward and the optimal instrument(s) for best leveraging the strategy suggested are employed.
Globally recognised for strong analytical skills, aligned with a particular aptitude for anticipating global economic events ahead of the majority of commentators, Macro Thoughts’ independent fundamental economic research and analysis and resultant strategies have a track record that assures exceptional results, with a service that surpasses the model of bank-supplied, partisan research and stands out from the general contributions on platforms that your clients and peers already have access to. The support and value offered by Macro Thoughts, delivering written research and analysis, presentations and consulting services, is backed by decades of macroeconomic and market experience and can be tailored to your specific requirements.
Member of the Royal Economic Society & EuroIRP, the European Association of Independent Research Providers.
www.macrothoughts.co.uk
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