Twin risks of the next global recession. (The week China moved markets when nobody was looking).
As global yields fell to the lows of the year, Macro Thoughts’ report of September 8, 2017, cautioned, ‘You may find it surprising, but Macro Thoughts warns against complacency over lower yields’.
Concerned that markets would become too comfortable with these lower levels and not be prepared for tightening financial conditions in China and the US, this was actually a critical moment to have raised such a concern, as it was just at this time that China’s actions changed the direction of US (and global) markets, whilst everyone’s attention was elsewhere. China’s 10 year yields have fallen over 10bp from 3.80%, since September 4, despite the spike in global yields.
Average Hourly Earnings constantly at 2.5%, Real Personal Spending -0.1% mom, the Personal Consumption Expenditure Deflator for August remaining at 1.4%, Core PCE falling from 1.4% to 1.3% yoy, having peaked at 1.8% in February, and oil prices rising, wouldn’t it be irresponsible for the Fed to risk raising Fed Funds to 1.25% - 1.50%?
www.macrothoughts.co.uk
Since 2012, top tier global Hedge, Pension, Investment and Insurance Fund managers, as well as corporates and private individuals, have benefited from Macro Thoughts’ proven insight, market commentary, hedging, and investment strategies to leverage opportunities, with positive returns on over 75% of strategies, producing double digit returns for our clients over consecutive years.
Macro Thoughts is independently researched and draws on extensive macroeconomic and market experience gained in Fixed Income, Futures, Derivatives, Bond, Forex, Commodity and Equity Index markets and from strong Global Macro investment, risk taking and strategy backgrounds. Far-reaching product knowledge across asset classes enables us to consider hedging and investment strategies that reflect our expected market trends. Macro Thoughts is directed by Keith Grindlay, whose experience spans, somewhat uniquely, both the buy and sell side, having managed trading and investment desks at top tier institutions, ensuring all strategies are evaluated for risk/reward and the optimal instrument(s) for best leveraging the strategy suggested are employed.
Globally recognised for strong analytical skills, aligned with a particular aptitude for anticipating global economic events ahead of the majority of commentators, Macro Thoughts’ independent fundamental economic research and analysis and resultant strategies have a track record that assures exceptional results, with a service that surpasses the model of bank-supplied, partisan research and stands out from the general contributions on platforms that your clients and peers already have access to. The support and value offered by Macro Thoughts, delivering written research and analysis, presentations and consulting services, is backed by decades of macroeconomic and market experience and can be tailored to your specific requirements.
Member of the Royal Economic Society & EuroIRP, the European Association of Independent Research Providers.
www.macrothoughts.co.uk
Unfortunately, this report is not available for the investor type or country you selected.
Browse all ResearchPool reportsReport is subscription only.
Thank you, your report is ready.
Thank you, your report is ready.