‘Recent data suggests 2016 Q4 growth can be expected to be below 2%, and as I have warned over the last two months, more commentators should consider flat or even negative growth in Q1 2017’, Macro Thoughts, December 31, 2016.
This week, my forecast of sub-2% was realised, when Q4 2016 was announced at 1.9%, significantly lower than the one-off 2.35% for Q3, averaging just 2% for the past two years.Â
Also...
Central bank meetings
Could the Fed defend another taper tantrum..what of the Fed's balance sheet and technicals for TY$?
European politics...Greater surprise from France than Netherlands? Serious contender to Merkel.....why Italy won't have an election in June...
Macro Thoughts has forecast the surprise of 2017 will be the increase in yields of European bonds. Macro Thoughts, December 16, 2016, ’Peripheral and semi-core yields may come under further pressure, therefore Spanish yields at 1.50%, Italian yields at 2% and French yields at 0.80%....
Since 2012, top tier global Hedge, Pension, Investment and Insurance Fund managers, as well as corporates and private individuals, have benefited from Macro Thoughts’ proven insight, market commentary, hedging, and investment strategies to leverage opportunities, with positive returns on over 75% of strategies, producing double digit returns for our clients over consecutive years.
Macro Thoughts is independently researched and draws on extensive macroeconomic and market experience gained in Fixed Income, Futures, Derivatives, Bond, Forex, Commodity and Equity Index markets and from strong Global Macro investment, risk taking and strategy backgrounds. Far-reaching product knowledge across asset classes enables us to consider hedging and investment strategies that reflect our expected market trends. Macro Thoughts is directed by Keith Grindlay, whose experience spans, somewhat uniquely, both the buy and sell side, having managed trading and investment desks at top tier institutions, ensuring all strategies are evaluated for risk/reward and the optimal instrument(s) for best leveraging the strategy suggested are employed.
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www.macrothoughts.co.uk
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