What goes up can also come down - Macro Thoughts Bond market report
The slowdown in the Japanese economy, which experienced growth contraction in Q1, has been largely ignored by markets, though as Macro Thoughts has highlighted, this began in 2017 and is now becoming more broad based.
- Household Spending fell -3.9% yoy for May, from -1.3%, being negative since January
- Housing Starts fell -7.1% in June yoy, from 1.3%
- Construction Orders were -6.5% in June yoy, following -18.7% in May
- Retail Sales for May fell -1.7% mom, from 1.3%, though rebounded to 1.5% in June
- Consumer Confidence has dropped to 43.5 from 43.7, the weakest since Aug ‘17
- Japanese growth in Q1 was negative, -0.6%
- Manufacturing PMI for July dropped to 51.6, from 53
- The All Industry Index for May was 0.1%, from 1.0%
- The Inflation rate is 0.1% mom and 0.7% yoy, despite higher oil prices
- Exports fell in June to 6.7%, from 8.1%, and Imports to 2.5%, from 14%
Industrial Production for June was -2.1%, following -0.2% in May, and was -1.2% yoy from 4.2%
Because markets have focused on the BOJ, they have ignored the announcement from the US Treasury...
It should also be borne in mind that Brexit will not only affect the UK’s interest and exchange rates, but also Europe’s and it would seem that may not be priced as yet.
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