CEZ – Gap to Stoxx Utilities yet to close
The CEZ stock price has deviated this year by more than 20% from the European peer group even though the risks of the nuclear projects seem to have decreased and the Company is on track of growth after nine years of shrinking EBITDA. Its expected capex (CZK ~30bn per year) combined with announced divestments in foreign markets (sales of assets in Bulgaria, Romania, Turkey and Poland could release at least CZK 30-40bn in aggregate) and decisions not to acquire RES projects in Western Europe open a broad space for dividend payments in line with the adjusted dividend policy. Applying the upgraded CO2 projection to the model, resulting in higher margins on clean energy generation, we have upgraded our long-term projection for CEZ and included higher figures from multiple valuation. As a result, the target price has risen 8% to CZK 612.9. We have upgraded our investment recommendation from Hold to Accumulate.
CEZ Group is a dynamic, integrated electricity conglomerate based in the Czech Republic and with operations in a number of countries of Central and Southeastern Europe and Turkey. Co. is an international group consisting of nearly 120 companies, Czech and foreign. Co.'s primary activities involve the production and transmission of electricity through nuclear, coal-fired and hydro power stations; production and distribution of heat and processing of secondary products generated during the production of electricity and heat as well as coal mining. Co. has operating companies in Poland, Bulgaria, Romania, the Netherlands, Ireland, Germany, Hungary, Albania, Turkey, Serbia, and Slovakia.
Set up in 1986, mBank (originally BRE – Export Development Bank) is Poland’s 4th largest universal banking group in terms of total assets and 5th by net loans and deposits at the end of June 2019. mBank has one of the oldest brokerages in Poland – we have been providing brokerage services since 1991 - and the biggest, serving about 300 ths clients.
We provide all brokerage services available in the Polish capital market (i.e. Warsaw Stock Exchange, non-public markets and forex) in a way that meets the expectations of all groups of investors, both individual and institutional. Participating in the dynamic growth of the Polish capital market since its inception, we have acquired competences and experience needed to provide the highest quality of service and we have won the trust and satisfaction of our Clients.
Over the past decade, mBank's Equity Research Team has been consistently ranked among the top research teams in Parkiet's annual institutional investor surveys (Parkiet is Poland's leading daily business newspaper). mBank analysts provide coverage on an extensive list of companies, mainly in Poland but also elsewhere in the CEE region: Austria, Czechia, Portugal, Ukraine and Hungary.
Clients get access to a comprehensive selection of research products including daily market insights, monthly roundups, macroeconomic views, industry- and company- specific analyses, investing strategies, earnings comments, etc.
We give our institutional clients numerous opportunities to connect with industry professionals, top executives, and leading analysts:
- Get direct access to senior management teams at listed companies (over 30 meetings in 2018),
- Engage in our many industry events, featuring listed Polish and global firms (in 2018, we hosted sector-themed conferences around industrials, chemical companies, telecoms, retail, and financials, and co-hosted a Best of Poland investors' with Commerzbank and the Warsaw Stock Exchange),
- Stay informed through an array of enlightening discussion panels, workshops, and briefing sessions with regulatory officials.
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