EME Equity Market – March 2025 Türkiye hammered, once again. The MSCI EM Europe Index advanced 0.5% in EUR terms and 4.5% mom in USD terms in March. The Czech PX Index was the best performer (+7.0% mom in EUR terms), followed by the Greek ASE (+4.8% mom), Polish WIG (+3.7% mom) and Hungarian BUX(+1.3% mom) indices (all in EUR terms). There was a muted performance from the Romanian BET Index (-0.1% mom in EUR terms). The Turkish ISE30 finished in the red again, declining 9.5% mom in EUR terms.
A director at CEZ sold 5,000 shares at 1,128.684CZK and the significance rating of the trade was 67/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly showing C...
HEADLINES: • Wirtualna Polska: 4Q24 results review – adjusted EBITDA up 17% yoy, 8% above the consensus POSITIVE • Alior Bank: 2027E targets – PLN 2.6bn of net profit; ROE above 18%; payout ratio above 50% POSITIVE • Ten Square Games: mixed newsflow – solid 4Q24 adjusted EBITDA, strong dividend recommendation, but disappointing trading update POSITIVE • Eurowag: 2H24 operating results in line, special dividend announced NEUTRAL • Polish retail: Zabka's 4Q24 below the consensus NEGATIVE • CEZ: up...
HEADLINES: • Pepco Group: structurally challenged (downgraded to HOLD) • Air Astana Group: 4Q24 – good, at first glance; dividend surprises positively • CEZ: takeaways from the 4Q24 earnings call NEGATIVE • Allegro: key takeaways from the 4Q24 call POSITIVE • Shoper: takeaways from the post-4Q24 prelims management call NEUTRAL • Polish banks: receive maximum dividend payout ratio letters from the PFSA – no surprises NEUTRAL • Mo-BRUK: unfavourable ruling results in closure of Wałbrzych branch (2...
HEADLINES: • BIM: strong operating results in 4Q24 POSITIVE • Bank Handlowy: 4Q24 results do not bring much new to the table NEUTRAL • Sok Marketler Ticaret: recovery in operating results masked by bottom-line loss in 4Q24 NEUTRAL • GEVORKYAN: 4Q24 results – lower than expected, due to one-off expenses NEUTRAL • Benefit Systems: key takeaways from the call on the MAC Group acquisition in Türkiye POSITIVE • Grupa Pracuj: PLN 28.6m revaluation of Beamery to harm 2024 results NEGATIVE • Budimex: an...
EME Equity Market – February 2025 Poland outperforms, again; Türkiye declines. The MSCI EM Europe Index advanced by 3.1% in EUR terms and 2.9% mom in USD terms in February. The Polish WIG20 was, once again, the best performer, adding 7.3% mom in February; followed by the Czech PX Index (+6.1% mom); while Greece (+3.8% mom), Hungary (+3.5% mom) and Romania (+3.0% mom) all reported rather similar performances. The Turkish ISE30 was the worst performer, declining 4.5% mom.
HEADLINES: • Bank Pekao: solid 4Q24 results; PLN 12.6 DPS in line with our expectations; market awaiting strategy update and answers to Alior Bank purchase POSITIVE • Siauliu Bankas: 4Q24 bottom-line beat; guidance upgrade means short-term pain, but long-term prospects NEGATIVE • Brisa: 4Q24 net profit beats on low tax rate POSITIVE • CTP: 4Q24 results – ends the year at the bottom of its FFO guidance NEUTRAL • OTE: 4Q24 results review – 2% yoy adjusted EBITDA growth, in line with expectations; ...
HEADLINES: • CEZ: Green Deal and grievances (downgraded to SELL) • Teknosa: weak set of results in 4Q24 NEGATIVE • EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (17-23 February) • MOL: 4Q results and 2025E guidance • EME Strategy: FTSE GEIS March 2025 Semi-Annual Review • Bank of Cyprus: launch of share buyback programme • Benefit Systems: decides on PLN 1bn five-year bond issue NEUTRAL • 4iG: 4Q24E preview – 20% yoy reported EBITDA increase expected (due on 28 February) • Sphera Group: 12% yoy EBITDA de...
We downgrade CEZ to SELL (from Hold), with a new 12M price target (PT) of CZK 823/share, or downside of 19%. CEZ is beginning another generation capex cycle, which (unlike the planned, but so-far modest, spending for RES) is for gas to coal switching, so is largely unavoidable. Taking a more sober assessment of new RES capacities, power volumes will be declining as, assuming the lignite phase out goes as planned, the new capex will largely only replicate the existing capacity, particularly that ...
HEADLINES: • Piraeus Financial Holdings: first take on potential Ethniki acquisition NEUTRAL • Czech Republic macro: CNB heading for a temporary pause • CEZ: finalises disposal of Polish coal assets NEUTRAL • 11 bit studios: Polish FSA taking explanatory actions regarding disclosure obligations NEUTRAL • Baltic Classifieds Group: directors sell 2m share (0.4% stake) NEGATIVE • Titan Cement: US subsidiary’s IPO priced at USD 16/share, reportedly • Asseco Poland: 4Q24E preview – flat yoy net profi...
HEADLINES: • Santander BP: 4Q24 results imply solid dividend potential, but share overhang remains a risk in the near term POSITIVE • Asseco Poland: TSS acquires 14.84% stake in Asseco Poland NEUTRAL • Trade Estates: Fourlis sells 16% stake at EUR 1.5/share • CEZ: to sell 15% stake in Veolia CR heating business NEUTRAL • Auto Partner: January sales growth at a limited 9% yoy NEGATIVE • Medicover: 4Q24E preview (due on 12 February) • Short News (CBF, SHO)
EME Equity Market – January 2025 The markets entered 2025 on the right foot. The MSCI EM Europe Index advanced by 7.7% in EUR terms and 8.4% in USD terms in January. The Polish WIG20 was the best performer (+12.7% mom), followed by the Hungarian BUX and Czech PX indices (+8.9% mom and +6.2% mom, in EUR terms, respectively). There was also a very solid performance from the Greek ASE Index (+5.4% mom in EUR terms), but more muted performances from the Romanian BET and Turkish ISE 30 indices (+1.6%...
HEADLINES: • RBI: to book provisions due to the Russian court decision NEGATIVE • CEZ: buyout of the CEZ minorities to be plank in ANO's election platform NEUTRAL • EME Macro/Strategy: Macro all-in-one (13-19 January) • Bank Millennium: 4Q24E preview (due on 31 January) • mBank: 4Q24E preview (due on 6 February) • Kruk: 4Q24E preview (due on 27 February) • Bank Handlowy: 4Q24E preview (due on 12 March)
EME Equity Market – December 2024 A green December. The MSCI EM Europe Index advanced 2.9% in EUR terms and 0.8% in USD terms in December. The Greek ASE Index (+5.5% mom in EUR terms) was the best performer, followed closely by the Czech PX Index (+5.0% mom in EUR terms). Solid performances were also reported by the BET (+2.4% mom), BUX (+2.2% mom) and ISE 30 (+1.5% mom) indices (all in EUR terms). The Polish WIG 20 Index (+0.4% mom in EUR terms) reported a muted performance.
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