Monetary Policy Analytics

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Led by former Federal Reserve Board Governor, Larry Meyer, Monetary Policy Analytics is an independent research firm focused on the macro economy, FOMC policy and interest rates. Our research is used by some of the world's largest hedge funds, fixed income asset managers, pension fund managers, currency desks, insurance companies and money center banks. The written commentary is outlined below:

Macro Views - A thematic presentation of Monetary Policy Analytic’s U.S. forecast that links our forecast of the key macro variables to monetary policy actions and market developments.

FOMC Briefing & Statement Comments - Timely, comprehensive commentaries interpreting and analyzing the implications of all FOMC communications.

Rates - Analysis and projections of the Fed's balance sheet, term premium, R* and their affects on the broader fixed income markets.

Weekly Update - Each week we publish an update based on incoming data.

In addition to the above, our clients may receive direct access to Larry Meyer and our team of Senior Economists and Senior Advisers via phone, email, conference call and in-person meetings.

Kevin Burgett
  • Kevin Burgett

Weekly Update 6/25/18

At an ECB conference in Portugal, Powell indicated that “concerns seem to be rising” about trade policy (June 20). He repeated that, “If you ask is it in the forecast yet, is it in the outlook, the answer is no. And you don’t see it in the performance of the economy.” However, he noted that “for the first time we are hearing about decisions to postpone investment, postpone hiring, postpone making decisions. That is a new thing.” In his speech at the sa....

06/27/18 June 27, 2018 3 EN
Derek Tang
  • Derek Tang

Risks to Balance Sheet Normalization Plans

The recent upward drift in the effective fed funds rate (EFFR) toward the upper bound of its target range occurred earlier than the Fed likely expected and prompted the interest rate on excess reserves (IOER rate) adjustment. The June 2018 Implementation Note that accompanied the FOMC statement said that the adjustment is “intended to fost....

06/27/18 June 27, 2018 4 EN
Kevin Burgett
  • Kevin Burgett

Weekly Update 6/18/18

The June FOMC statement and the accompanying macro and funds rate projections were broadly as expected, reflecting a Committee that is somewhat more confident in the economic outlook than in March. Accordingly, they believe that it is appropriate for monetary policy to move toward neutral slightly faster. However, the Committee still .....

06/19/18 June 19, 2018 4 EN
Larry Meyer
  • Larry Meyer

FOMC Meeting

Today’s postmeeting statement and the accompanying macro and funds rate projections were broadly as expected, reflecting a Committee that is somewhat more confident in the economic outlook than in March. Accordingly, they believe that it is appropriate for monetary policy to move toward neutral slightly faster. However, the Committee s.......

06/14/18 June 14, 2018 5 EN
Kevin Burgett
  • Kevin Burgett

FOMC Chatter

Since the May FOMC meeting, we adjusted our funds rate call, removing a hike in 2019 based on our expectation that the FOMC is likely to pause once the funds rate reaches its estimated neutral level, in mid2019. This change was informed in part by policymakers’ public remarks, which indicated that they are likely to approach further rate hikes much more cautiously once at neutral, and not by any change in the economic outlook, which remains very strong. Trade remained a major issue dominating ...

06/13/18 June 13, 2018 4 EN

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