March CPI Increase Reverses Effect of Year-Ago Decline, Reinforces Case for Four Rate Hikes This Year
The 0.2% increase in the core CPI index in March, in line with market expectations, lifted the 12-month ratefrom 1.86% in February to 2.11% in March. That increase exceeded the decline in the 12-month rate in
March 2017, when the core CPI fell. That decline was generally attributed in large part to a price level shock
that would depress inflation until it moved out of the 12-month window, which it now has. The rise in the
core CPI in March will likely translate into a 0.2% increase in core PCE prices in March. That would raise 12-
month core PCE inflat.......
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