Reverse Engineering the FOMC’s Policy Rule
In the last two expansions, the unemployment rate fell well below the NAIRU and inflation rose to nearly 2%or modestly above. In both cases, the FOMC raised the funds rate well above the estimated neutral rate.
Recessions quickly followed. Today, the unemployment rate is already ½ percentage point below FOMC
participants’ median estimate of the NAIRU, and the unemployment rate is likely to be revised l....
Led by former Federal Reserve Board Governor, Larry Meyer, Monetary Policy Analytics is an independent research firm focused on the macro economy, FOMC policy and interest rates. Our research is used by some of the world's largest hedge funds, fixed income asset managers, pension fund managers, currency desks, insurance companies and money center banks. The written commentary is outlined below:
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