Weekly Update
We saw Yellen’s speech last week as consistent with our (close) call that the FOMC will raise rates in December (See Message from Yellen: Steady Hand, But Alert to Inflation Developments). Her remarks indicated that there is a solid consensus on the FOMC that the recent slowing in core PCE inflation is due principally to transitory forces, in which case underlying inflation rate is not as low as recent core inflation readings might indicate. However, she discussed many sources of uncertainty surrounding the inflation outlook, and on balance her remarks suggested that she sees these factors as tilting the risks to the inflation outlook to the downside, though she did not explicitly say so.
Led by former Federal Reserve Board Governor, Larry Meyer, Monetary Policy Analytics is an independent research firm focused on the macro economy, FOMC policy and interest rates. Our research is used by some of the world's largest hedge funds, fixed income asset managers, pension fund managers, currency desks, insurance companies and money center banks. The written commentary is outlined below:
Macro Views - A thematic presentation of Monetary Policy Analytic’s U.S. forecast that links our forecast of the key macro variables to monetary policy actions and market developments.
FOMC Briefing & Statement Comments - Timely, comprehensive commentaries interpreting and analyzing the implications of all FOMC communications.
Rates - Analysis and projections of the Fed's balance sheet, term premium, R* and their affects on the broader fixed income markets.
Weekly Update - Each week we publish an update based on incoming data.
In addition to the above, our clients may receive direct access to Larry Meyer and our team of Senior Economists and Senior Advisers via phone, email, conference call and in-person meetings.
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