Weekly Update 6/4/18:
We have adjusted our Fed call, and now our baseline is three hikes in 2019, rather than four. All told, our modal call is now four hikes in 2018, three hikes in 2019, and one hike in 2020. The adjustment reflects a reassessment of the FOMC’s reaction function in light of recent remarks and an accompanying rebalancing of the risks around our call, which we had already seen as tilted toward a slower pace of hikes next year. (Click here for the full analysis.) We did not make this adjustment because of any change in the macroeconomic outlook. Indeed, the....
Led by former Federal Reserve Board Governor, Larry Meyer, Monetary Policy Analytics is an independent research firm focused on the macro economy, FOMC policy and interest rates. Our research is used by some of the world's largest hedge funds, fixed income asset managers, pension fund managers, currency desks, insurance companies and money center banks. The written commentary is outlined below:
Macro Views - A thematic presentation of Monetary Policy Analytic’s U.S. forecast that links our forecast of the key macro variables to monetary policy actions and market developments.
FOMC Briefing & Statement Comments - Timely, comprehensive commentaries interpreting and analyzing the implications of all FOMC communications.
Rates - Analysis and projections of the Fed's balance sheet, term premium, R* and their affects on the broader fixed income markets.
Weekly Update - Each week we publish an update based on incoming data.
In addition to the above, our clients may receive direct access to Larry Meyer and our team of Senior Economists and Senior Advisers via phone, email, conference call and in-person meetings.
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