Morpheus Opening and Management Change at City of Dreams Should Improve Melco's Earnings
We are planning to bring forward our assumptions of the start of a cyclical downturn to 2019-20 from 2020-21. As such, we expect a single-digit change to our $22 valuation for narrow-moat Melco Resort, which incorporates a single-digit decline in revenue in 2020 and 2021 and license renewal risks in the form of higher gaming taxes. We now forecast gross gaming revenue growth to be negative 4% in 2019 (positive 15% prior), up 3% in 2020 (negative 1% prior) and lift 5% in 2021 (negative 5% prior)....
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