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Karen Andersen
  • Karen Andersen
LONN LONZA GROUP AG (Health Care)

Business as Usual for No-Moat Lonza; Specialty Ingredients Carve-Out o...

Contract manufacturer Lonza reported solid half-year results, with over CHF 2.9 billion in total sales year to date, up about 6.4% from last year and boosted by foreign exchange tailwinds. Core EBITDA margin expanded 30 basis points from last year to about 27.8%, helped slightly by new accounting standards. Management indicated that it continues to expect mid- to high-single-digit sales growth in 2019. We are maintaining our fair value estimate of CHF 210 per share and our no-moat rating. The ph...

Damien Conover
  • Damien Conover
AZN AstraZeneca PLC... (Health Care)

Astra Posts Solid 2Q, Driven by Strong Cancer Drug Sales and Moving Aw...

We don't expect any major changes to our AstraZeneca fair value estimate following second-quarter results that largely fell in line with our expectations and slightly ahead of consensus expectations. Overall, the company is posting leading Big Pharma sales growth with total sales up 18% operationally year over year, led by impressive cancer drug sales growth of 57%. Astra's ability to continue to bring next generation drugs to the market that address unmet medical need (especially in oncology) s...

AZN ASTRAZENECA PLC ADS (Health Care)
Joe Gemino
  • Joe Gemino
SSL SASOL LTD. ADS (Chemicals)

Sasol Provides Full-Year Production Update

No-moat Sasol provided an update on its full-year fiscal 2019 production metrics that included relatively stable liquids production. For the full year ended June 30, Sasol produced 1,470 thousand barrels of crude oil and condensate a day compared with 1,469 mboe/d in the year-ago period. However, declines continued with the company’s natural gas production, down 4% to 130.3 billion cubic feet compared with the period ended June 30, 2018. Sasol also reported flat refined products of 31.4 mmboe/...

Damien Conover
  • Damien Conover
AZN ASTRAZENECA (Health Care)

Astra Posts Solid 2Q, Driven by Strong Cancer Drug Sales and Moving Aw...

We don't expect any major changes to our AstraZeneca fair value estimate following second-quarter results that largely fell in line with our expectations and slightly ahead of consensus expectations. Overall, the company is posting leading Big Pharma sales growth with total sales up 18% operationally year over year, led by impressive cancer drug sales growth of 57%. Astra's ability to continue to bring next generation drugs to the market that address unmet medical need (especially in oncology) s...

Joe Gemino
  • Joe Gemino
103M SASOL LTD. (Chemicals)

Sasol Provides Full-Year Production Update

No-moat Sasol provided an update on its full-year fiscal 2019 production metrics that included relatively stable liquids production. For the full year ended June 30, Sasol produced 1,470 thousand barrels of crude oil and condensate a day compared with 1,469 mboe/d in the year-ago period. However, declines continued with the company’s natural gas production, down 4% to 130.3 billion cubic feet compared with the period ended June 30, 2018. Sasol also reported flat refined products of 31.4 mmboe/...

Jaime Katz
  • Jaime Katz
HOG Harley-Davidson... (Automobiles & Parts)

Timing Shift Crimps 2019 Shipments at Harley; Profit Growth Delayed Un...

Languishing domestic demand continues to weigh on wide-moat Harley’s growth, with Harley U.S. retail sales falling 8% while industry retail sales ticked down 5%, implying market share losses for the brand. While much of the share cede was attributed to the consumer’s preference for other styles, including smaller displacement bikes, we don’t see anything likely to stop overall market declines until the middle of next year, when Harley launches its first middleweight bike product. Furthermo...

HOG HARLEY-DAVIDSON INC. (Automobiles & Parts)
Andreea Matysiak
  • Andreea Matysiak
MTX MTU Aero Engine... (Industrial Goods & Services)

Strong First-Half 2019 for Wide-Moat MTU Aero Engines; Shares Remain E...

German aerospace manufacturer MTU Aero Engines delivered strong first-half year results, with Group's revenue up 12% on a like-for-like basis, and adjusted EBIT at EUR 365 million, up 9%. Adjusted EBIT margin reached 16.3% in the first half of the year, with MTU Zhuhai China as the main positive margin contributor. Results were mainly in line with our expectations; however, the margin boost was slightly stronger than we anticipated. We maintain our fair value estimate at 165 EUR and our wide m...

MTX MTU AERO ENGINES AG (Industrial Goods & Services)
Joe Gemino
  • Joe Gemino
CPG Crescent Point ... (Oil & Gas)

Crescent Point Energy Reports Its Second Consecutive Strong Quarter

No-moat Crescent Point Energy reported another strong quarter, with cash flow consistent with the first quarter. The company reported second-quarter adjusted operating cash flow of CAD 504 million, which was flat compared with the first quarter, but above our expectations. An improvement in realized crude pricing drove The higher-than-expected cash flow. Crude pricing realizations averaged CAD 72 per barrel of oil equivalent, which was up 11% from the first quarter while West Texas Intermediate ...

Joe Gemino
  • Joe Gemino
CPG Crescent Point ... (Oil & Gas)

Crescent Point Energy Reports Its Second Consecutive Strong Quarter

No-moat Crescent Point Energy reported another strong quarter, with cash flow consistent with the first quarter. The company reported second-quarter adjusted operating cash flow of CAD 504 million, which was flat compared with the first quarter, but above our expectations. An improvement in realized crude pricing drove The higher-than-expected cash flow. Crude pricing realizations averaged CAD 72 per barrel of oil equivalent, which was up 11% from the first quarter while West Texas Intermediate ...

Dan Romanoff
  • Dan Romanoff
CTXS Citrix Systems ... (Technology)

Citrix Systems: Fundamentals Are Sound Despite the Headline Miss; $100...

Narrow-moat Citrix reported second-quarter results that missed the mark by any measure as a result of an accelerating transition to subscriptions from perpetual license and maintenance revenue. In our initiation earlier this month, we noted discomfort at the various moving parts, including the trajectory of the model transition. At this point, investors should be familiar with the mechanics of this transition, as revenue and margins take a hit near term due to the accounting treatment of subsc...

CTXS CITRIX SYSTEMS INC. (Technology)
Chelsey Tam
  • Chelsey Tam
MAS Melco Crown Ent... (Travel & Leisure)

Melco Resorts Gaining Market Share in VIP and Mass Helped by Morpheusâ...

Narrow-moat Melco Resorts’ first-half revenue and adjusted EBITDA were 52% and 51% of our full-year estimates, respectively. We are planning to raise our fair value estimate by 30% to 35% to USD 27 to USD 28 from USD 21 per share previously predominantly due to our incorporation of Studio City Phase 2 the first time in our assumptions. VIP gaming revenue registered a 7% year-over-year increase for Melco Resorts, significantly better than the estimated Macau market’s negative 14% in the quart...

Allen Good
  • Allen Good
EQNR EQUINOR ASA (Oil & Gas)

Lower Oil Prices Weigh on Equinor’s 2Q Earnings

Equinor reported second-quarter adjusted earnings of $1.1 billion compared with $1.7 billion last year. Lower oil prices were the primary culprit behind the decline but a lower  share of liquids production and higher operating costs from new fields also played a role. E&P Norway adjusted earnings fell to $2.4 billion from $3.1 billion last year while E&P international adjusted earnings fell to $649 million from $1.0 billion last year primarily on lower prices. Equity production of 2,012 ...

Allen Good
  • Allen Good
EQNR EQUINOR ASA (Oil & Gas)

Lower Oil Prices Weigh on Equinor’s 2Q Earnings

Equinor reported second-quarter adjusted earnings of $1.1 billion compared with $1.7 billion last year. Lower oil prices were the primary culprit behind the decline but a lower  share of liquids production and higher operating costs from new fields also played a role. E&P Norway adjusted earnings fell to $2.4 billion from $3.1 billion last year while E&P international adjusted earnings fell to $649 million from $1.0 billion last year primarily on lower prices. Equity production of 2,012 ...

Denise Molina
  • Denise Molina
ABB ABB LTD. ADS (Industrial Goods & Services)

ABB Reports Lacklustre 2Q

Wide-moat ABB's full-year results are trending in line with our full-year expectations on an underlying basis, but favourable currency movements puts reported revenue growth slightly ahead. We plan to make changes to our forecasts but not material enough to adjust our USD 25.00 and CHF 25.40 fair value estimates for the ADR and local shares, respectively. Shares look attractively valued but we expect some near-term investor hesitation on buying the shares given the ongoing restructuring, and sea...

Denise Molina
  • Denise Molina
ABB ABB LTD (Industrial Goods & Services)

ABB Reports Lacklustre 2Q

Wide-moat ABB's full-year results are trending in line with our full-year expectations on an underlying basis, but favourable currency movements puts reported revenue growth slightly ahead. We plan to make changes to our forecasts but not material enough to adjust our USD 25.00 and CHF 25.40 fair value estimates for the ADR and local shares, respectively. Shares look attractively valued but we expect some near-term investor hesitation on buying the shares given the ongoing restructuring, and sea...

Ioannis Pontikis
  • Ioannis Pontikis

Casino Reports in Line 2Q Results, Suspends Dividend And Maintains Gui...

Casino Group reported a second-quarter sales update with group revenue up 3.5% on an organic basis, broadly in line with our annual expectations. Management confirmed its annual guidance (10% trading profit growth, excluding property, EUR 500 million free cash flow in France before dividends and financial expenses, France net debt less than EUR 1.5 billion by the end of 2020, among others). Management also announced a suspension of the dividend in 2020 (a total saving of EUR 500 million over 18...

Allen Good
  • Allen Good
REP REPSOL (Oil & Gas)

Repsol Q2 Earnings Slip, but It Remains on Track to Hit 2020 Target

Repsol reported second-quarter adjusted earnings fell to EUR 497 million from EUR 549 million last year on weaker commodity prices and a difficult refining environment. Upstream adjusted earnings slipped to EUR 323 million from EUR 360 million last year largely on lower oil prices, which offset steady natural gas realizations. Production volumes also fell to 694 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, or mboed, from 722 mboed last year primarily because of maintenance, divestments and natural...

Rob Hales
  • Rob Hales
BAS BASF AG (Chemicals)

Auto, Auto, and More Auto Driving BASF’s Weak Results; Shares Fairly...

Narrow-moat BASF reported a 47% decline in EBIT for the second quarter, but the stock is trading flat given the company already announced a profit warning on July 8. A EUR 5 billion increase in net income will cause concern, but this was because of a book gain resulting from the deconsolidation of the oil and gas business with the closing of the joint venture with DEA. The common theme throughout management's commentary on the quarter is a very weak automotive industry. Global automotive product...

Rob Hales
  • Rob Hales
BASA BASF SE ADS (Chemicals)

Auto, Auto, and More Auto Driving BASF’s Weak Results; Shares Fairly...

Narrow-moat BASF reported a 47% decline in EBIT for the second quarter, but the stock is trading flat given the company already announced a profit warning on July 8. A EUR 5 billion increase in net income will cause concern, but this was because of a book gain resulting from the deconsolidation of the oil and gas business with the closing of the joint venture with DEA. The common theme throughout management's commentary on the quarter is a very weak automotive industry. Global automotive product...

Denise Molina
  • Denise Molina
SU Schneider Elect... (Industrial Goods & Services)

Schneider Electric Raises Guidance and Posts Strong 2Q; Shares Attract...

Wide-moat Schneider Electric posted good revenue growth (5%) and margin expansion (40 basis points) in first-half 2019, aided by spending from process automation, double- digit software growth and steady demand for low- and medium-voltage products. Management increased guidance for the year. Results so far this year are trending slightly above our expectations. We plan to make modest upward changes to our forecasts but not enough to materially affect our EUR 92 fair value estimate. Shares look a...

SU SCHNEIDER ELECTRIC S.A. (Industrial Goods & Services)
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