Report
Seth Goldstein, CFA
EUR 101.80 For Business Accounts Only

We’ve Lowered Our Long-Term Price Forecast for Phosphate and Medium-Term Price Forecast for Potash

We’ve reduced our outlook for phosphate and potash prices as we expect more new capacity to come on line than we had forecast. Our 2025 phosphate price falls to $360 per metric ton (in real terms), down from $420. In potash, while we still expect a 2025 potash price of $260 per metric ton (in real terms), we don't see meaningful price expansion until after 2020.
Our Mosaic fair value estimate falls to $30 per share from $33. Our Agrium U.S. share class fair value estimate decreases to $110 per s...
Underlying
Agrium Inc.

Agriumis a retailer of agricultural products and services in the U.S., Canada, Australia, Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Uruguay and a producer and wholesale marketer of nutrients for agricultural and industrial markets. Co. reported its business through two business units, Retail, which operates in North and South America and Australia, providing crop inputs and services directly to farmers; and Wholesale, which operates in North and South America and Europe, and produces, markets and distributes all major crop nutrients for agricultural and industrial customers both domestically and around the world.

Provider
Morningstar
Morningstar

Morningstar, Inc. is a leading provider of independent investment research in North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia. The company offer an extensive line of products and services for individual investors, financial advisors, asset managers, and retirement plan providers and sponsors.

Morningstar provides data on approximately 530,000 investment offerings, including stocks, mutual funds, and similar vehicles, along with real-time global market data on more than 18 million equities, indexes, futures, options, commodities, and precious metals, in addition to foreign exchange and Treasury markets. Morningstar also offers investment management services through its investment advisory subsidiaries and had approximately $185 billion in assets under advisement and management as of June 30, 2016.

We have operations in 27 countries.

Analysts
Seth Goldstein, CFA

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