Report
Seth Goldstein, CFA
EUR 101.80 For Business Accounts Only

Copper Forecast Update: Prices Should Fall as Supply Rebounds and Chinese Demand Slips Post-Stimulus

We’ve raised our 2017 and 2018 copper price forecasts amid short-term supply constraints and stimulus-related demand growth in China. We now expect prices to average $2.65 per pound in 2017 (previously $2.40) and $2.40 in 2018 (previously $2.05). Our Freeport-McMoRan fair value estimate rises to $7.20 per share from $6.10, our Antofagasta fair value estimate increases to GBX 413 per share from GBX 388, and our First Quantum fair value estimate rises to CAD 6.20 per share from CAD 5.40.
We expec...
Underlying
Antofagasta plc

Antofagasta is a Chilean copper mining group engaged in the discovery, development and operation of copper mining assets. Co. operates four copper mines in Chile, two of which also produce significant volumes of by-products. In addition to mining, Co. has a transport division that provides rail and road cargo services in northern Chile primarily to mining customers, including to some of Co.'s own operations. Co. is organized into two business divisions based on their products: Mining and Railway and other transport services. The mining division is split by mine and exploration activity. The transport division provides rail cargo and road cargo together with a number of ancillary services.

Provider
Morningstar
Morningstar

Morningstar, Inc. is a leading provider of independent investment research in North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia. The company offer an extensive line of products and services for individual investors, financial advisors, asset managers, and retirement plan providers and sponsors.

Morningstar provides data on approximately 530,000 investment offerings, including stocks, mutual funds, and similar vehicles, along with real-time global market data on more than 18 million equities, indexes, futures, options, commodities, and precious metals, in addition to foreign exchange and Treasury markets. Morningstar also offers investment management services through its investment advisory subsidiaries and had approximately $185 billion in assets under advisement and management as of June 30, 2016.

We have operations in 27 countries.

Analysts
Seth Goldstein, CFA

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