We Increase our FVE for No-Moat Beach to AUD 2.25 with Potential for Further Gains Remaining.
We increase our fair value estimate for no-moat Beach Energy to AUD 2.25 per share from AUD 1.95, due to a lower AUD/USD exchange rate of 0.70, the time value of money, and after increasing our midcycle domestic gas price forecast to AUD 7.15 per million British thermal units, or mmBtu. We think our prior forecast of AUD 6.50/mmBtu was too pessimistic. We think a higher incentive price is needed, given the export linkage and legislative barriers. Our fair value equates to a fiscal 2023 EV/EBITDA...Beach Energy is engaged in oil and gas exploration, development and production and investment in the resources industry. Co.'s operating segments include Cooper Basin, which includes oil and gas sales from Australian production; Other Australia, which includes Co.'s interest in all on-shore and off-shore production and exploration tenements within Australia other than the Cooper Basin; and International interests, which includes Co.'s interests in all areas outside Australia and oil and gas sales from Egyptian production. As of June 30 2016, Co. had total proved and probable reserve estimate of 69.8 million barrels of oil equivalent.
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