Morningstar | Investing in Brand Driving Strong Revenue Growth for Blackmores; No Change to FVE
We adjust our fiscal 2019 earnings forecasts for narrow-moat-rated Blackmores following release of its first-quarter results. The firm significantly increased its advertising and promotional activity, which had the twin impact of driving stronger revenue growth while the cost of this activity detracted from profit growth. Revenue was up 15% on the same quarter last year and net profit after tax rose 7%. We now forecast EPS increases 9% in fiscal 2019, compared with our prior forecast of 20% and actual growth of 19% in fiscal 2018. Nonetheless, we remain comfortable with our AUD 135 per share fair value estimate as investment in the brand should generate good long-term returns in key Asian markets. At current prices, the stock is roughly fairly valued.Australian sales grew 19%, with underlying domestic growth estimated at a solid 7% and the balance coming from stronger indirect exports. China in-country sales growth was a highlight, up 30% thanks to successful promotions on Chinese online platforms. Management estimates overall growth in sales to Chinese consumers at around 18%, across direct and indirect exports and in-country sales. Management remains confident in the outlook for Asia, and the firm has not experienced any issues getting product into China. Being on the right side of Chinese regulation is a key advantage compared with lower-quality players trying to break into this huge market.
Elsewhere in Asia, revenue is growing very strongly, though from small bases. Hong Kong, Taiwan, Korea, and Indonesia sales were up 59%, 167%, 76% and 115%, respectively.
Blackmores is engaged in the development, sales and marketing of health products for humans and animals including vitamins and herbal and mineral nutritional supplements. As of June 30 2016, Co. operated in Australia, New Zealand and Asia.
Morningstar, Inc. is a leading provider of independent investment research in North America, Europe, Australia, and Asia. The company offer an extensive line of products and services for individual investors, financial advisors, asset managers, and retirement plan providers and sponsors.
Morningstar provides data on approximately 530,000 investment offerings, including stocks, mutual funds, and similar vehicles, along with real-time global market data on more than 18 million equities, indexes, futures, options, commodities, and precious metals, in addition to foreign exchange and Treasury markets. Morningstar also offers investment management services through its investment advisory subsidiaries and had approximately $185 billion in assets under advisement and management as of June 30, 2016.
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