European Banks: Little Delight From Turkey
Turkey's rapid economic growth was fuelled by a surge in credit, and the recent collapse in the value of the lira threatens to topple this house of cards. Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, Unicredit, ING, and BNP Paribas respectively derive 14%, 10%, 5%, and 3% of their profits from Turkey, which is at risk.Our base-case scenario is that the Turkish economy goes through a phase of painful rebalancing during which it weans itself from its reliance on foreign funding. Turkish banks' profitability ...
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