Launching Coverage of Calbee With Narrow Moat and Stable Moat Trend Ratings; FVE of JPY 4,350
We initiate coverage of Calbee with a fair value estimate of JPY 4,350, and assign it narrow moat and stable moat trend ratings. The stock is trading at a 10% discount to our fair value estimate although our near-term earnings forecasts are nearly 10% below the consensus. We expect that the potential growth opportunities in expanding Frugra sales in China will sustain the premium exhibited in its valuations, contrary to the derating implied by consensus. We also expect its efforts to reduce exce...Calbee is mainly engaged in the manufacture and sale of snack confectionery, bakery product and cereal. Co.'s snack food includes potato-based snacks, such as potato chips under the names of "Potato Chips," "Jagarico," and "Jagabee;" flour-based snacks under the names of "Kappa Ebisen," "Sapporo Potato," "Sayaendo," and "Yaki Morokoshi;" and corn-based snacks under the names of "Mike Popcorn Butter Shoyu (butter and soy sauce) flavor," "Doritos," and "Cheetos." Co. provides cereal food under the name of "Fruit Granola" as well as bakery products such as pastries and sandwiches for retailer. In addition, Co. is also engaged in the logistics business.
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