Part 2. Second Instalment of Three-Part Discussion on Key Inputs for No-Moat Caltex; Fuel Volumes
Our unchanged AUD 30 per share Caltex fair value estimate is predicated upon three key assumptions for the 10 years to 2026. This is the second instalment of a three-part discussion on key inputs for no-moat Caltex, this time focusing on refined fuel volumes. We rate refined product volumes as the second-most-important variable, behind marketing margin (already discussed in Part 1). Overall we determine that a 10% or 15 basis point variance from our base case 1.5% per year fuel volume growth rat...Caltex Australia is engaged in the purchase, refining, distribution and marketing of petroleum products and the operation of convenience stores throughout Australia. Co. has two segments: Supply and Marketing, which is an integrated transport fuel supply chain which sources refined products on the international market and sells Caltex fuels, lubricants, specialty products and convenience store goods through a network of Caltex, Caltex Woolworths and Ampol branded service stations, as well as through company owned and non-equity resellers and direct sales to corporate customers; and Lytton, which refines crude oil into petrol, diesel, jet fuel and products such as liquid petroleum gas.
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