No-Moat Caltex’s 1H Shocker Reflects Extraordinary Challenges. No Change to AUD 33.50 FVE.
We make no change to our AUD 33.50 fair value estimate for no-moat Caltex. That’s despite a first-half fiscal 2019 shocker. Caltex provided unaudited guidance for a 40%-45% decline in underlying EBIT to AUD 240-270 million, well below our AUD 498 million forecast which itself would have been a 13% decline. But we don’t think the key driver of low fuel margins, down due to weakness in the Australian economy and high board prices, is sustainable. That said, we reduce our first-half 2019 underlying...Caltex Australia is engaged in the purchase, refining, distribution and marketing of petroleum products and the operation of convenience stores throughout Australia. Co. has two segments: Supply and Marketing, which is an integrated transport fuel supply chain which sources refined products on the international market and sells Caltex fuels, lubricants, specialty products and convenience store goods through a network of Caltex, Caltex Woolworths and Ampol branded service stations, as well as through company owned and non-equity resellers and direct sales to corporate customers; and Lytton, which refines crude oil into petrol, diesel, jet fuel and products such as liquid petroleum gas.
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