Refiner Margin Falls in June but Caltex Maintains 1H 2018 Earnings Guidance; No Change to FVE
We retain our AUD 33.50 fair value estimate for no-moat Caltex, but marginally decrease our 2018 EPS forecasts by 3% to AUD 2.43. June’s USD 8.63/barrel Caltex refiner margin came in lower than the USD 12.00 Caltex had assumed to derive its first-half 2018 profit guidance. Still, while the firm says first-half Lytton refinery EBIT will be below the AUD 110 million guidance provided in early June--we now forecast AUD 103 million--EBIT guidance for the group overall remains within the prior AUD 44...Caltex Australia is engaged in the purchase, refining, distribution and marketing of petroleum products and the operation of convenience stores throughout Australia. Co. has two segments: Supply and Marketing, which is an integrated transport fuel supply chain which sources refined products on the international market and sells Caltex fuels, lubricants, specialty products and convenience store goods through a network of Caltex, Caltex Woolworths and Ampol branded service stations, as well as through company owned and non-equity resellers and direct sales to corporate customers; and Lytton, which refines crude oil into petrol, diesel, jet fuel and products such as liquid petroleum gas.
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