CNOOC Increases Output Targets; New Capital Expenditure Guidance Within Expectations
We raise our fair value estimate for no-moat CNOOC to HKD 10.20 per share (USD 131 per ADR) from HKD 9.40 per share (USD 120 per ADR) after taking into account the time value of money and the firm’s higher production targets, which increase our 2018-19 earnings estimates by 10%-14%. Our midcycle Brent oil price assumption is unchanged at USD 60 per barrel, and we think CNOOC is currently fairly valued, with near-term upside capped by our view of falling oil prices in 2018 due to rising U.S. shal...
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