Weak oil-price environment stifles cash flow and reserves growth.
Our fair value estimate for CNOOC remains at HKD 9.40 per share (USD 121 per ADR) following changes to our near-term oil price forecasts that are offset by a stronger U.S. dollar against the renminbi. With OPEC’s output cut expected to increase oil prices more quickly than we anticipated, but with shale oil producers likely to respond by raising supply, we now see Brent rising to USD 61 per barrel in 2017 but falling back to USD 48 in 2018. We had originally expected oil prices to rise through 2...
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